What more can be done?

[u/hayfeverrun]

Delta seems to be evading us.

Reff does not seem to be able to get below 1 in NSW (~1.55) or VIC (~2) even with strict lockdown measures.

There are some who say "therefore, let it rip" (which seems like a version of a sunk cost fallacy + an "eat the marshmallow now" mentality, given that this will blow the lid off Reff to stratospheric growth before any adequate vaccination is able to be achieved when you could reduce harm in the interim AND still get your freedom back after adequate vaccination), but for those who are in the reasonable middle of "let's keep this thing under control as much as we can until we're vaccinated", it really seems like the situation has changed...

From: "This is a continuous balancing act of freedoms and keeping Reff below 1" (e.g. original, Alpha, etc.)

To: "The usual bag of tricks isn't working anymore to keep Reff below 1. It may not even be possible. If so, it is now a race against time -- can we vaccinate faster than the virus grows?"

There are obviously two levers to that game: (1) Vaccinate faster. I assume we're trying everything we can already so I won't discuss this further. (2) Slow virus growth. This is what I'll focus on.

Pre-Delta, we had previously "solved" this by figuring out a cocktail of solutions to get Reff < 1. In that world, going any further would be seen as unnecessarily freedom encroaching. But now that it may not even be possible to get below 1, ideas that would previously been seen as "freedom encroaching" (in the post-covid, but pre-Delta world) may have merit.

For example, curfews were previously seen to lack evidence, and possibly concentrate queues into limited time windows, but are now being used increasingly by NSW & VIC for enforcement and "theatre" (to reinforce the gravity) benefits. The same could be said about outdoor mask mandates, where NSW has recently changed their tack.

It makes me wonder what more can actually be done, if anything? Would you see these as a bridge too far?

For instance: I was thinking about VIC's 1 person per household rule for grocery shopping. I've grown to accept it, but I can also see that it's kind of annoying (e.g. my partner and I like to shop together, and she can't carry all the groceries by herself). Then, it made me think: would the government stop people from exercising in any group (e.g. yourself only) -- you could make the same arguments that it wasn't fair to certain people who might not want to exercise alone, but then I realised it was kind of similar for grocery shopping, and it would certainly have enforcement benefits. This is just one example.

Would love to hear thoughts from others. Are we scraping the bottom of the barrel now? Do you agree that we should consider going further? Where does the harm minimisation vs. freedom threshold fall when it's no longer black and white? (e.g. accepting Reff 1.5 until vaccinations versus trying to get it down to ~1 but never really below)

BTW -- this article, published March 20, 2020 (not 2021!), is still the article I find has aged the best given its age (in dog years!) and guides us through this new era of the pandemic: https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56.

[u/kleintjie16]

No it’s because of Wuhan and a virus that mutated there.