r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/FarEndRN • 22d ago

Who will the California Democratic Party back for the 2022 Gubernatorial Election? US Elections

There are two potential outcomes with the recall next month: either Newsom does not survive the recall, making whichever candidate that replaces him the new target next year; or Newsom narrowly survives this recall, leaving him limping into the next election.

Does the Democratic Party move on from Newsom, knowing the baggage (some deserved, some not) he brings with him? And if so, who is waiting in the shadows to replace him as the next Democratic Governor of California?

3 Upvotes

56% Upvoted

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u/blaqsupaman 22d ago

Hot take: Newsom will win the recall by a landslide and comfortably cruise to reelection in 2022.

8

u/KingSlayer94 21d ago

He'll likely win but not by a landslide based on the latest polls.

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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman 21d ago

It's possible that those polls are overestimating the turnout gap based on enthusiasm levels and Dems end up turning out more than expected, especially with everyone in the state getting mailed a ballot. We won't know until September, but something like that would likely lead to the numbers looking more normal for California than the current polling

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u/docmedic 19d ago

I also expect once most people are vaccinated and COVID restrictions are lifted/normalized, people won't really have anything to complain about.

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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman 19d ago

I mean the election is in 2.5 weeks and everyone already has their ballots/can mail them back whenever they want, so that's not really a factor

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u/docmedic 19d ago

Well, for the 2022 gubernatorial elections I mean.

11

u/BlueLondon1905 22d ago

If Newsom survives the recall, worst case scenario he gets 58% in 2022. California is too Democratic for it to be any other way, barring some October Surprise

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u/blaqsupaman 12d ago

I actually think Newsom will win the recall by a comfortable margin.

5

u/DemWitty 22d ago

I highly doubt he faces a strong challenge if he wins the recall. I mean, there were no major Democratic candidates who entered the recall race so why would they enter next year if he beats it? Don't forget that midterm elections will be more favorable to Democrats than an off-year September election would be, so a Republican winning isn't exactly a huge threat.

By the way, the current breakdown of votes returned so far have Democrats slightly above their 2020 percentages when compared to the same time before the election, so despite the polling there is a third option: Newsom comfortably survives. In that case, he definitely doesn't get a serious challenger. (The caveat here is it's still early and Republican voters tend to vote later/in-person, but also remember that every eligible voter is mailed a ballot in the state.)

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u/topofthefirstpage 22d ago

I honestly believe that most of the people who voted him in in 2018 will vote for him again in 2022 as long as he survives the recall. He will continue to say that the effort was a Trump-backed political effort to undermine him (which is not inaccurate) and continue to drum the fear of a return to Trump against a general election challenger. The Democratic Party in California is following along with this narrative in the recall (since there are no major Democratic competitors in this race against him…the most well-known one is a finance YouTuber lol) and I assume they will continue to do so in 2022 if he wins the recall. Now, if he loses the recall, that might be a different story. There’s blood in the water and the Democratic Party might look elsewhere for primary candidates (I assume the Lt Gov and others). They could also say that the recall was a sham and happened to succeed and run him again but I think it’s less likely in this scenario than if he wins the recall.

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u/3headeddragn 22d ago

I could maybe see a progressive challenging him (Ro Khanna) but with the top 2 primary system California has it would be near impossible to pull off successfully.

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u/jackofslayers 15d ago

I would just run Newson again.

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I mean the whole recall process is fundamentally stupid in California so it makes it an awkward question.

Suppose Gavin Newson gets recalled 55%-45%. Then the replacement governor wins with a plurality of 25%. That still means Gavin Newson has a 20% lead on the next most popular person. I like those odds

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u/reaper527 20d ago

given how things have gone with the recall, if newsom wins the state democratic party will back him lockstep in 2022 if he runs again. the shady stuff they (and those financially tied to the democratic party, such as social media companies) are doing right now makes it very clear it's his party and will be unless he gets recalled.

social media companies are literally censoring his opponents, and refusing to verify them in order to not give them legitimacy. democrat campaign managers have told recall democrats that they can't work for their campaign because the state party will blackball them from ever working with the party again in future elections if they work for a non-newsom candidate. basically the whole "you'll never work in this town again" line but in modern society.

that kind of unilateral (and corrupt) backing isn't going to dissolve in 12-14 months if he's still an incumbent at that time. honestly, i wouldn't be surprised if democrats who don't support newsom but are too afraid to publicly say it are privately hoping elder wins just to get rid of newsom (knowing that he'd be nothing more than a figurehead given the vetoproof legislature and a short period until the 2022 general election)

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u/MathAnalysis 22d ago

Becerra may be too busy in DC but that guy would be a particularly formidable opponent. He has the resume, the charisma, and can satisfy both the establishment and far left.

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u/blaqsupaman 12d ago

I actually think Newsom will comfortably win the recall. I just can't see Californians choosing a Republican governor in the foreseeable future without a MASSIVE scandal or something.