r/amcstock • u/girthygirthmonster • 19d ago
Holy fuck, my two most important indicators have both lit up. DD
BIG TIME EDIT:
The borrow rate dropped back to 1% 😠😠😠😠.
https://iborrowdesk.com/report/AMC
21 May 2021 Live Feed of Whales vs Shorts.
Whales/Retail Slapping Shorts Around
Thesis:
Not only have we entered the end of the 90 day shorting cycle, but the interest rate on borrowing for AMC has risen to 5%! Last time this happened, AMC went from ~$9.00 to $67 in the course of a few days!
The two indicators work together to justify a price increase. The first indicator is the 90 day short cycle, where when 90 days runs up, we will see unusual, positive movement. Following this comes the interest rate for borrowing shares. I dive into detail why both are important and what it means moving forward for the next month.
Above all else, expect to see similar movement seen 21 May 2021.
#1 -- AMC's 90 day Algorithmic Shorting Cycle
21 Aug 2021
21 May 2021
February
Important Note #1
I can't stress enough that the curve we'd expect to see--should we get a gamma squeeze or even THE squeeze--is a MASSIVE difference compared to what we saw in May. To illustrate, GME presents the best example (so don't ban me). GME (all meme stocks really) all go through this 90 day cycle, but GME does it best when illustrating how these two curves are separate from each other and why.
#2 -- AMC Short Interest Rate Increase
Important Note #2
Increased borrow rate is a bearish sentiment lenders have for a stock. Meaning, lenders increase the borrow interest rate because they want to make money off of financial institutions shorting the stock. There will be a new wave of short sellers all trying capitalize off the perceived bearish sentiment AMC has while lenders reap the benefit of capitalizing off their perception by increasing the borrow rate. Thus, as a result, financial institutions NOT SHORT on AMC will meet shorts head on in the battlefield where they will unload disgusting amounts of capital buying power on the stock seeking to provoke a squeeze. As a result, a large vacuum happens where we then see massive levels of FOMO enter the picture and retail (assuming retail investments are even factored in) then does pew pew barrage attack too buying the stock. If we see a similar price increase to May's upswing, the gamma squeeze indicator will be activated which, like seen in January for GME, should it happen, will launch the price to an insane price level never seen before, which SHOULD, in theory, squeeze short sellers out sending everyone to the moon.
https://iborrowdesk.com/report/AMC
Final Note:
Not financial advice. Just my two cents analyzing price movement. Ape love ape. I'll see ya'll crayon eating scum bags on the moon. And no, I will not TDLR. You're going to read everything if you really want to understand why this is legit. Art doesn't get a TLDR and neither will my work.
I want to make it super clear that my thesis is based of historical data. Data that captures the unusual movement from the stock and what happened in May with the borrow rate increasing. Granted, between the two, the stock did raise significantly, this time around could be different. Common sense tells me that shorts may re-think shorting the stock despite it's incentive, however, we've all seen what shorts are capable of doing. Calling them reckless would be an understatement.
In May, lenders found AMC to be so sweet and juicy to short that they increased the borrow rate overnight to 80% enticing short sellers of all kinds to part take in their Red Wedding (GoT reference). The borrow rate right now is 5%, which is still a good thing. It just might take a bit longer for shorts to take the bait because 5% is still pretty low compared to 80%. Especially knowing what large institutions are waiting to do once they take the bait.
edit for grammar.
7
u/jery007 19d ago
Nipple #1 AND nipple #2