Muhammadu Buhari: Africa needs more than US military aid to defeat terror

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u/toenailseason Aug 16 '21

Then what's stopping him? Or his government?

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u/Rodot Aug 16 '21

If I had to take a wild-guess I would assume those multi-national conglomerates aren't exactly paying very high taxes on the resources they extract. Or in other words, Nigeria is poor.

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u/toenailseason Aug 16 '21 edited Aug 16 '21

Nigeria has had 70 years of oil extraction and nothing to show for it.

You'd think that some smart Nigerians (and there's no shortage of those) would figure out that just digging oil and splitting the profits amongst a handful of kleptocrats isn't a viable long term strategy to industrialize and modernize a state of 200 million.

But alas, here is Buhari, cap in hand...

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u/Aggressive-Meat4639 Aug 16 '21

The United States had nearly 300 years to develop its society and industrial capacity. Similarly, other western nations had similar time frames to industrialize. Not only that, they were allowed to acquire vast sums of wealth through horrific exploitation in the form of colonialism.

Nigeria formed its first government in 1961. Not only that, but it also didn't have continents to carve up and exploit for cheap natural resources & labor in the same way that western powers had. So they have had just 60 years to transform a society deeply damaged by colonialism into a democracy with immense industrial capacity.

It’s all right to tell a man to lift himself by his own bootstraps, but it is cruel jest to say to a bootless man that he ought to lift himself by his own bootstraps.

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u/toenailseason Aug 16 '21

It's because Nigeria isn't a state like the United States. It's a geographical administrative region created by the British for the convenience of governance and handed over to woefully unequipped and barely educated administrative class. It was set up for failure off the get-go.

I think Nigeria will continue to hobble along until it becomes completely ungovernable and falls apart.

The lack of investment in education in the middle and northern regions doesn't bode well for any sort of complex state structure, and even more so to meet the challenges of the 21st century (like desertification of its fertile northern region, oil dependence, and ethnic strife).

If Nigeria was to ever claw itself out of its predicament, it needs a visionary. Think of someone like Germany's Bismarck, or Russia's Catherine. Not illiterate recycled dictators from the 80s, like a bad remake of an already bad movie.

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u/DrPepperThanks 28d ago

No, it needs a Jerry Rawlings type and I love to see how you so casually assume that Nigerians have no sense of self worth or pride in their own country and will just willfully let it fall apart.

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u/toenailseason 28d ago

That's literally what's happening right now. It's falling apart.

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u/DrPepperThanks 28d ago

No its not

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u/toenailseason 28d ago

Lack of electricity, lack of security (kidnappings, extremist terrorism), multiple separatist movements, an ineffective ailing leader of a corrupt administration, 55% youth unemployment, only 60% adult national literacy, Fulani attacks, reprisals against Fulani attacks, desertification, complete lack of any covid information, in fact, just general lack of proper healthcare (why does Buhari go to Europe for treatment?) etc etc.

It's looking more and more like the future of Africa lies in Kenya, Zambia, Tanzania, Namibia, Ghana, Senegal, and Rwanda. Nigeria unfortunately, has to deal with its issues to be taken seriously.

I feel worst for the Nigerians who know their predicament is awful, but are stuck and can't escape due to a myriad of reasons.

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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21

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u/White_Mlungu_Capital Aug 17 '21

This is a false form of propaganda that the European colonizing states fed to their domestic population to convince them that their colonialism and human rights abuses of mass murders were some how benevolent.

The only degree of truth was when the Africans fought back after WW2 to liberate their countries from European occupation combined with many Western European getting a taste of German colonialism first hand (which ironically was a drain on the German economy), the Winds of Change wars and mass uprising at the same time made colonialism very hard and expensive for the Europeans to maintain in Africa. Further, given the mass murders in WW2, few Europeans were ready to go sign up for more wars in Africa right after, as such, African colonies became very expensive for Europeans to maintain because the African liberaton fighters for freedom, were blocking the mass looting of their nations the Europeans had gotten rich off.

Korea was colonized by Japan, but then it was a major beneficiary of 70 years of direct US aid under the point 4, point 5 program. Had Congo got the kind of investment from the US that Korea, Japan and China did, it would look very different. And the kinds of cruelty and mass murder Leopold did in the Congo makes the Japanese look like choir boys.

You are simply not appreciating the histories and treatment of both countries by Western powers.

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u/toclosetotheedge 29d ago edited 29d ago

Speaking of 1961 and the Congo (which, I believe we will both agree was by far the most exploitative situation in colonial Africa and thus the perfect example here). Did you know that the Congo actually had a higher GDP per capita than many other countries back in 1961 (the year of its independence)? Almost twice the GDP per capita of South Korea for the year you gave, for instance.

Hmmm I wonder what events occurred in 1961 that led to the collapse of the Congo....

And the similarities don't end there. Korea was also a colonized state by imperial Japanese, a country whose cruelty would make even a shitstain like Leopold blush.

Korea was an actual country when the Japanese invaded, the congo was not only larger with a much bigger population but wasn't really a unified state instead it was a collection states and tribes with their own distinct cultures and political traditions mashed together for the sake of profit.

Yet one has Samsung now and the other sells raw phone materials to Samsung... Your starting conditions do not define your future.

The fact that the Congo supplies the materials to make most of our conveniences is part of the reason the region is in the state it is right now.

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u/rafaellvandervaart 28d ago

The United States had nearly 300 years to develop its society and industrial capacity. Similarly, other western nations had similar time frames to industrialize. Not only that, they were allowed to acquire vast sums of wealth through horrific exploitation in the form of colonialism.

Catchup growth is a thing. See how countries like China, India, Botswana, Estonia etc boomed afte they liberalized their economy

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u/Aggressive-Meat4639 28d ago

Sure, but those are exceptions.

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u/FredWatanabe Aug 16 '21

That kind of population growth could be problematic for west Africa though Nigeria is still huge and could do something about it.

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u/jmlsasgzhiwala Aug 16 '21

Population growth at some point needs to be dealt in with. Nigeria already has 200 million people and still growing rapidly. At some point things like massive contraception campaigns need to be considered and a reshaping of the country to be more accepting of smaller families.

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u/White_Mlungu_Capital Aug 17 '21

Population growth is not an issue because Africa is very underpopulated as a whole, they have plenty resources to support the population, especially in Nigeria. Countries that can't support 200 million in Africa like Namibia or Mali, do not.

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u/jmlsasgzhiwala Aug 17 '21

I hope you're right, one of the whole doom and gloom situations regarding climate change is that at some point agriculture is going to being adversely affected. If that truly does happen, countries across the world need to be prepared to either grow enough to fulfill their people's or pay a very steep price, because if the U.S, Russia, Brazil, and other huge grain exporters take a massive hit to their production it wouldn't be long before they just upped and banned grain exports until the situation stabilized.

If countries are looking down the barrel of a future starvation situation because they suddenly can't import grain I'd much rather these countries "lose" a bunch of people by way of them not being conceived in the first place, not via starvation or wars caused by massive disruption and people taking to violence simply to avoid starvation.

In a way Nigeria is already seeing a taste of this, the looting and massacres occurring between farmers and herdsmen come directly as a burgeoning population is trying to farm every scrap of land that is arable and herdsman's migration routes have been interrupted and rerouted according to pasture and water conditions for their herds. The violence exhibited by either side is despicable, but the environmental changes are driving these two groups of people to clash over land in the first place. Added ethnic and religious tensions may also be motivators but that conflict is very rooted in two groups essentially fighting to survive by maintaining their way of life. Both are near subsistence levels of livelihood and even in good years with ample rain for the herdsman's pastures or for the farmer's crops still puts these people at barely above subsistence and hopefully as Nigeria develops a better way of life can be made for the children of these people over the next few decades.

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u/White_Mlungu_Capital 29d ago

Nigeria has pretty fertile land and good rainfall, plus a large stable river and dams.

Nigeria exports agriculture crops, the importing of wheat and grain is distorted by heavy subsidies given to farmers in certain nations like Brazil, USA, etc. that make it illogical for local farmers to grow grain as they don't get such subsidies, so they instead grow and export other crops (cash crops mostly) that earn them more income than wheat.

Banning grain exports, would cause an initial shock to Nigeria, but they'd just start growing grain domestically and with no winter, they have a lot more growing seasons than China and USA.

"If countries are looking down the barrel of a future starvation situation because they suddenly can't import grain I'd much rather these countries "lose" a bunch of people by way of them not being conceived in the first place, not via starvation or wars caused by massive disruption and people taking to violence simply to avoid starvation."

This could be true, but it doesn't apply to Nigeria or West Africa at all. They don't have this issue. Nigeria's top exports include many agra products like cocoa, coconuts, seeds, and fertilizer.

The countries in Africa who are close to food insecure would be ones like Egypt, which are in the desert, reliant on a single river, and would be totally screwed if climate change got really bad.

"In a way Nigeria is already seeing a taste of this, the looting and massacres occurring between farmers and herdsmen come directly as a burgeoning population is trying to farm every scrap of land that is arable and herdsman's migration routes have been interrupted and rerouted according to pasture and water conditions for their herds"

Nigeria, has issues, you are describing more so political things and the populations with northern herdsmen are not even large at all, these guys live in the Sahara/Sahel a semi-arid place even pre-climate change, there are political issues dealing with Islam and capitalism. In that the South grows lots of the food and is wet, and it is where most people are concentrated in.

Your argument, would be like saying well USA will be in big trouble and starve to death when climate change comes around because the Mojave desert is really dry and they already have trouble growing food there, while ignoring that very few people live out there. Then pointing to the conflict with ranchers like Cliven Bundy attacking federal property and Jan 6 insurrection to support this.

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u/jmlsasgzhiwala Aug 16 '21

As bad as things get in some areas of Nigeria the country would arguably a whole lot worse if it didn't have the oil wealth. The country has many areas that are not in danger of terrorism and it's economy is slowly if not surely moving forward.

IMO it is definitely critical for the future of West Africa that Nigeria keeps growing economically and problems like Boko Haram dealt with not just for the people of Nigeria but many surrounding nations. Like Kenya and Tanzania in East Africa or Soutb Africa at the tip of the continent, the success of these fairly stable counties is critical for the development of surrounding nations in both political stability and interregional trade.

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u/White_Mlungu_Capital Aug 17 '21

Not so simple, the Biafran war was basically a war where the West tried to break off the oil rich region of Nigeria for not awarding enough contracts to Western firms. To keep this from occuring again, Nigeria must award them some large contracts. These Western firms lie and cheat their taxes in Nigeria (they were caught by Nigerian tax authorities because they admit the real amount of oil in internal documents filed with SEC in USA how much they took out and sold) but vastly understated how much they took out to Nigerian tax authorities. Hence it was a massive wealth transfer at the expense of Nigerian tax payers to enrich foreign states in the West. These multi-nationals that are based in the West give "donations" or legalized bribes to Western politicians for political cover, and then accuse Nigeria of being corrupt and "shaking them down" for asking them to pay their legitimate tax burdens on oil coming from Nigeria.

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u/Outside_Scientist365 28d ago

You'd think that some smart Nigerians (and there's no shortage of those) would figure out that just digging oil and splitting the profits amongst a handful of kleptocrats isn't a viable long term strategy to industrialize and modernize a state of 200 million.

People who don't kowtow have a strange habit of winding up dead. See Sankara and Lamumba.

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u/2girls1cupofjoe Aug 16 '21

Then they'll always be at risk of being nationalized. Idk enough to prove you wrong of course, but I'm willing to bet a lot of Nigerian politicians get very wealthy while others don't see a dime. Good thing that's not an American issue...

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u/3_more_beers Aug 17 '21

Nigeria has the strongest economy on the African continent.

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u/throwawayrandomvowel 29d ago

It's definitely not that. Certainly in some part they are complicit, but it is fully a governance and market / infrastructure problem, fundamentally.

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u/itcud Aug 16 '21

You expect a middle power in Western Africa to stop terrorists at the other edge of the continent?

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u/Feluza Aug 17 '21

His net worth is US $50 - 80 million. What is stopping his government is that politicians are looting the treasury.

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u/AlarmingAffect0 Aug 17 '21

"Building infrastructure, connecting remote regions and providing jobs will strengthen the continent’s defences"

That's a weird way of saying "keep people busy and materially content so they don't have time nor motives to even entertain the very idea of armed rebellion, let alone support it".

This is basic common sense, even for tyrants. Glad he made it that far.

"Defences" implies an outside threat.

To the Continent, no less.

Who does the Continent need defending from, that would be defended against by building infrastructure and creating jobs?

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u/Throwaway1588442 28d ago

Also keep them more connected to other people around the country

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u/AlarmingAffect0 28d ago

Translatable as: "Make troops' movement faster and easier."

If you look at the US Interstate Highway System, you may observe it primarily doesn't connect cities, but military bases. The cities and commerce are just a nice bonus.

Which, you know, may not necessarily be a bad thing. Though Anarchists might disagree, I suppose.

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u/redrighthand_ Aug 16 '21

With such a clear pivot, as recent events have shown, away from "The War on Terror" and towards the Far East this seems unlikely. In the eyes of America, Nigeria, Uganda et al have received their aid, training, support just like the ANA did. It is time to cut the apron strings.

I am by no means saying that is the right thing to do but the priorities are shifting. Ironically if Africa is seen as less and less important we know who will fill the gap to support them.

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u/SPQR191 Aug 16 '21

I think part of the US pivot towards Eastern Asia necessitates meeting China on the battlefield they chose, which is the economy of Africa. If the US wants to limit Chinese influence, they are going to have to put their money where their mouth is and invest in Africa to counter Chinese investments.

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u/itcud Aug 16 '21

Or we Europeans could carry our weight, like we've been doing in Mali. It is not USA alone that stands to lose from China gaining influence.

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u/SPQR191 Aug 16 '21

I think Europe has been showing itself to be very on the fence about the US vs China question. I think years of resentment of US influence led to an eastern facing policy, but recent events have definitely been pushing especially eastern European countries back toward the American side. I don't think there's enough commitment to securing American hegemony or in a European foreign policy that hinges on capital outflows. Hopefully the US will be a bit more eager to engage with its allies for at least the next 3 1/2 years and we can work together to make a foreign policy that promotes democracy and human rights that the entire western world can get behind.

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u/ChiefThunderSqueak Aug 17 '21

Agreed on all points. Also, I wish the E.U. would equal the U.S. in military spending capped at 2% of GDP. If the combined West plus a rising Quad can't contain China and Russia while maintain its global influence with that huge amount of money, then we'd know they're just pissing it away.

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u/SPQR191 Aug 17 '21

I don't know if the EU necessarily needs to be spending 2% on military. If they redirect funds toward things like investments in regions to keep them from turning to China, I think that could probably be even better than increasing the military deterrent.

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u/Testiclese Aug 16 '21

It is absolutely the right thing to do. America cannot be responsible for every soon-to-be-failed state’s economic and security problems. Since when is this the expectation?

Nigeria will either solve its own problems or fail as a state. It’s that simple. That has been the reality in our world since time immemorial to about 1945 and yes we did have a brief pause during the Cold War, but we are now reverting to the “old normal”.

If you want the US’ help, you’d better pony up something of value. And oil doesn’t cut it anymore.

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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21 edited 21d ago

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u/Spicey123 Aug 16 '21

Sure. If China wants to bleed itself dry to buy "friends" (not even since most of these nations still dislike and distrust China) then they're free to do so.

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u/Gars0n Aug 16 '21

I agree. The US Nigeria relationship is not the only one at play here. The cost of inaction in this case is that the US simply won't have a seat at the table in the future.

That "seat" could be very valuable if Nigeria (and other poor African nations) experience the rapid growth that is predicted. Moreover it's much more expensive to buy friendship with a nation when they have become powerful than it is to buy it when they are not.

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u/Testiclese Aug 16 '21

The only “rapid growth” that I’m aware of that’s predicted is the population one. Not economic. An exploding population without the jobs and opportunities to back it up is a recipe for disaster - just look at Egypt.

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u/GlaxoJohnSmith Aug 16 '21

It's worse than that; Nigeria's current growth is almost entirely driven by oil exports.

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u/Testiclese Aug 16 '21

I can already predict where the most refugee boats arriving in Italy will be coming from.

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u/MoonMan75 Aug 16 '21

There's pretty major differences between the Nigerian and Ugandan govts though, compared to the Afghan govt and ANA. The former have been established for decades, weathered through some tough situations in the past and can support themselves. Much better investments.

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u/redrighthand_ Aug 16 '21

I agree, I’m just sceptical of them receiving the support they might need and who will fill that perceived gap.

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

Yes, investment and job creation will help raise up these countries and prevent desperate young men from being attracted to extremism. With that said, I have little faith in most of sub Saharan Africa to not be corrupt and squander aid for dictators or the president’s in group or tribe. Why should we spend our hard earned tax dollars if governments don’t use it appropriately?

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u/Fr06t Aug 16 '21 edited Aug 16 '21

Even then, if the government is green clean, it's hard to attract foreign investment when you have terrorists floating around. The only way to "break the cycle" is to use authoritarian methods which can be a hit or miss. Like China is doing.

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

That is exactly what Rwanda is doing

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u/Fr06t Aug 16 '21

Is or was Rwanda suffering from terrorist attacks?

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

Strongman leader who has provided stability from ethnic violence and has been able to get foreign investment

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u/osaru-yo Aug 16 '21

Am Rwandan. What exactly is Rwanda doing?

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u/CTK_John8-11 Aug 17 '21

I believe the other poster was saying that Rwanda has an authoritarian government that is able to maintain peace and stability. In this environment investment can blossom.

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u/osaru-yo Aug 17 '21

I believe the other poster is dodging the question. I know exactly what said person is saying, I want to see if it is just fluff or actual knowledge.

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u/CTK_John8-11 Aug 17 '21

Do you think the other poster is wrong?

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u/osaru-yo Aug 17 '21

People who think others can just emulate Rwanda often do not know what they are talking about. Kagame didn't just pull this off because he is a strongman. There is a history of central authority and coherence that predates Kagame by centuries. There is a reason why said person dodged the question.

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u/CTK_John8-11 Aug 17 '21

So you don't believe it would work everywhere, but that still leaves a lot of places that had those conditions. Do you think it would work in Mali?

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u/[deleted] Aug 17 '21

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u/the_new_plastic_age Aug 16 '21

Wrong reason though. You can be a stable dictatorship or democracy, but it will be insufficient. The reason why Africa is struggling is because they missed out on the globalism ship that has sailed a while ago.

Asia is still the manufacturing hub of the world, and moving your operations from Asia to Africa, a place where there arent that many existing business on your field doesnt make sense to an investor. And Asia will continue to be cheap for, probably, the rest of the century.

That how depressing the findings are.

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u/squat1001 Aug 16 '21

That assessment kind of ignores the democracies that have been muddling along though, like Botswana or Ghana, or the authoritarian countries that have absolutely devastated by their government, like Zimbabwe. As ever with the region, there is no one-size-fits all solution.

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u/IamFluffy94 Aug 16 '21

Yes, and that is what the Chinese are doing. Actually building infrastructure, opening factories, giving jobs to people. At least in the urban areas, Chinese influence will be far greater than that of the United States.

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u/RarelyRecommended Aug 16 '21

Maybe the Chinese realize terrorism has root causes. If someone has something to do to earn a decent living they aren't as likely to listen to the crazies in their society.

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u/WaleedAbbasvD Aug 16 '21

Yet that's not remotely true here (Pakistan).

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u/Exticulate Aug 17 '21

Most extremists in Pakistan don't have a descent living.

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u/WaleedAbbasvD 28d ago

People with decent wages aren't listening to hate preachers? Kidhr reh rahe ho bhai?

You'll find that in any religious protest especially surrounding blasphemy will have people from all parts of society. Everyone I talked to in 2014 about the Charlie Hebdo incident, wanted them dead.

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u/Fr06t 29d ago

Most Pakistani terrorists come from Balochistan, which has standards worse than sub-saharan africa, or Afghanistan. This is very wrong.

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u/WaleedAbbasvD 28d ago

I have no idea/data about the proportion of terrorists from Balochistan. However, the claim made here was that well paid people would be less likely to buy into extremist rhetoric. That's patently untrue and you haven't addressed it.

The general population in Pakistan has incredibly regressive notions about religion, women rights etc. Secondly, Mullahs here have an insane pull on the middle class. You can see this anytime a controversial religious issue arises. Protests and social media are filled with educated people going out of their way to defend their behaviour.

You'll have entire college campuses stoning someone based on the accusation of blasphemy or hundreds of people harrasing/assaulting someone. Kon si values main buy into nai kiya logon ne?

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u/Fr06t 28d ago

There's a reason middle-income people with education aren't so regressive. Most of these people are uneducated because they can't afford education. It ultimately comes back to money.

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u/WaleedAbbasvD 28d ago

There's a reason middle-income people with education aren't so regressive.

Mate, a student was stoned to death by an entire mob inside a university campus.

It ultimately comes back to money.

It has more to do with social conditioning than money. That's why you'll have vastly different values in the same economic class.

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u/SailaNamai Aug 16 '21

That is not the approach China is taking in Xinjiang though. Granted, there could be tertiary effects, but those are not a given.

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u/crowbotanthem Aug 16 '21

Xinjiang is within Chinese borders, I think that gives them a little more leeway to take a harder stance than in say, Sudan.

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u/SailaNamai Aug 16 '21

Fair point. We have yet to see how China will react once its investments in other countries are threatened. It is speculation on my part but I think that China will probably take decisive, disproportionate action, if only to create precedent.

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u/sephelutis Aug 16 '21

What was that saying

Kill chicken to scare monke?

Yeah they gonna make the infrastructure better and create jobs, as well as reminding you what happens if you renegade on that social contract. Thats a double incentive then

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u/Jerry_Tse Aug 17 '21

That is. Xinjiang is a key node of Belt & Road. If you've been to Xinjiang, you'll find the infrastructure there tremendous. Of course, they also applied re-education camp as another approach which was debatable.

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u/ouaisjeparlechinois Aug 17 '21

I think the idea they've had in Xinjiang is that they already tried giving jobs and stability but still there's been terrorist attacks, therefore they go all in and commit some horrible stuff

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u/[deleted] 29d ago

Yeah and OBL was born into a family of multi billionaires.

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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21

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u/cas18khash Aug 16 '21

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/08/debunking-myth-debt-trap-diplomacy

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u/distortedtheory Aug 16 '21

I don’t even like the CCP AT ALL and the debt trap thing seems like an exaggeration.

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

The CCP is like a payday advance company. Basically a lender of last resort who charges more interest than more reputable lenders, and also provides the construction workers rather than employing natives.

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u/randomguy0101001 Aug 16 '21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/02/chinese-firms-african-labor-are-building-africas-infrastructure/

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/chinas-infrastructure-heavy-model-for-african-growth-is-failing/

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u/randomguy0101001 Aug 16 '21

Sorry, are you saying your article supports your claim of 'construction workers rather than employing natives'?

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u/osaru-yo Aug 16 '21

You are responding to a comment debunking your claim about the employment of natives with another random article related to the topic but unrelated to the comment at hand (which, by the way, has been posted and answered before). This is straight up dishonest. At what point do you realize you are simply regurgitating western misconceptions?

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

Are you trying to suggest that the CCP is doing this because they truly care while also making some money? Neo-colonialism, end of story

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u/osaru-yo Aug 16 '21

I am suggesting that you behave like a bad faith actor that moves the goal post and cannot even be bothered defending past arguments (the fact you are putting words in my mouth doesn't help your case either). Everything you wrote is textbook definition of the type of Western projection you would expect on r/worldnews. Furthermore, talking about this topic in platitudes of care and morality when it is simple foreign policy is silly. At this point you should just stop pretending you came here to discuss serious foreign policy or geopolitics. Seriously, are you one of those people that think liberal state act according to morality and not pragmatic interest? Are we seriously going down this naive path of reasoning?

Neo-colonialism, end of story

You couldn't even understand what colonial is. Let's not pretend you know the context of what neo-colonial is. I always find it funny that in African circles we usually think of France. Some of you are so focused on China and Chinese propaganda you do not take the time to reflect on the fact Western states (all states to be fair) have their own.

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u/PotbellysAltAccount Aug 16 '21

Ah, i remember you. You mod /r/Africa and permit borderline racist and other conspiracies to be posted fairly regularly.

I always find it funny that in African circles we usually think of France.

Yes, remove France from trying to help various nations in West and Central Africa, and see how well that works out. Niger and Mali would turn into more jihadist states if not for the French helping secular leaders.

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u/Erisagi Aug 16 '21

Oh yeah it's definitely neocolonialism in my opinion. Should we talk about it like it's necessarily a bad thing? Historically, forms of colonialism have been a good way for empires to enrich themselves. We should be countering it or doing it ourselves out of a desire to benefit or compete, rather than some unrealistic altruism. I had thought on r/geopolitics we try to evaluate situations more objectively and not get overly concerned with idealism.

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u/osaru-yo Aug 16 '21

I had thought on r/geopolitics we try to evaluate situations more objectively and not get overly concerned with idealism.

This is much easier when all participating actors are knowledgeable and can properly self-asses. Like realising that throwing around the term neocolonial is not 'objective' but is ironically mostly misused by people who do not grasp what colonialism was in the first place.

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u/VladThe1mplyer Aug 16 '21

I don’t even like the CCP AT ALL and the debt trap thing seems like an exaggeration.

Lending huge amounts of cash to countries that are so unstable and poor that not even the IMF swilling to lend to does not seem weird to you.

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u/distortedtheory Aug 17 '21

Actually I don’t know. I would guess that the IMF is backed by countries that are economically strong so they lend money for other reasons whereas China is looking for new markets to sell products so they’re willing to offer better deals. We have to be vigilant though.

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u/dandaman910 Aug 16 '21

We will see . I think some warlord is gonna see that infrastructure as an enticing conquest.

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u/NecesseFatum Aug 16 '21

Generally the jobs created go to Chinese workers and Chinese companies.

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u/MrStrange15 Aug 17 '21

Things are not amazing, but its no longer true that the jobs only go to Chinese workers.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/bri-increasingly-focused-benefits-locals

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u/DGGuitars Aug 16 '21

We did all of that in afghanistan.

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u/Aggressive-Meat4639 Aug 16 '21

You're confused.

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u/DGGuitars Aug 16 '21

No no im not. The usa has invested over a Trillion alone in afghan infastructure from power plant, to cell towers, hospitals the list is huge.

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u/Aggressive-Meat4639 Aug 16 '21

I think you're confusing " reconstruction efforts" with infrastructure investment. Although I could be mistaken. Can you provide a source?

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u/DGGuitars Aug 16 '21

Google how we rebuilt the largest source of electricity there, how healthcare drastically increased under our prescence, we built schools and hospitals , all new roads and highways. Sure some mismanaged but not all. We trained doctors ,gave out vaccinations, built police forces, built airlines and extended cell service. Just google each topic youll see dozens of articles.

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u/Aggressive-Meat4639 Aug 16 '21

I'm aware that we spent money on infrastructure. But you made a claim that we spent a trillion. Obviously you got that number from somewhere. Could you provide the source?

Mostly I'm just interested in these kinds of things. I was under the impression that 80% of spending was military & defense while 20% was spent on civilians. And within that 20% spent on civilians, you had that divided been infrastructure and social programs.

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u/TENRIB Aug 17 '21

Reconstruction of what in Afghanistan? They had the roads and telecom towers pre invasion?

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u/Aggressive-Meat4639 Aug 17 '21

Reconstruction is a political term referring to stabilizing a society after a war, not necessarily actual physical reconstruction.

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u/Kbek Aug 17 '21

Before invasion was 2000, cell phone were barely a thing in the west at this point.

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u/BasileusDivinum Aug 16 '21

Except its over and much of the stuff they built was exploitative infrastructure. The most apt comparision to what China did is to European Empires in the 1800s going in to Africa, building roads and railrways and then siphoning the resources of the nation out along those roads and railways back to the home country. These thing weren't good for Africa then or good for Africa now. Jesus a lot of time i come on this sub and it seems like yall are stuck looking in the short term on stuff like China and Africa, without actually looking long term or back into the history of these regions either. https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1lx4xdjgghf3z/china-end-of-the-belt-and-road

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u/randomguy0101001 Aug 16 '21

Then why is China building things like rail between cities, electric plants [coal or otherwise], industrial areas, etc, if all they are interested was in resources?

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u/VladThe1mplyer Aug 16 '21

Then why is China building things like rail between cities, electric plants [coal or otherwise], industrial areas, etc, if all they are interested was in resources?

To maximize resource extraction and productivity.

0

u/randomguy0101001 Aug 17 '21

So not just resource extraction then.

4

u/Express_Cheetah4664 Aug 17 '21

Ethnic replacement, "Lebensraum" they're trying to make Xinjiang and Tibet majority Han within two generations.

1

u/randomguy0101001 Aug 17 '21

You got any academic sources to support this claim?

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u/ItRead18544920 29d ago

We can start with Xinjiang, if you like:

The Hanification of Xinjiang, China

Migration and Inequality in Xinjiang

And here’s two articles:

China cuts Uighur births with IUDs, abortion, sterilization

China’s Own Documents Show Potential Genocidal Sterilization Plans in Xinjiang

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u/randomguy0101001 29d ago

For the first article, I am disappointed in the author's failure to identify permanent settlement, ie colonialism, and migrants looking for work. Normally I wouldn't make a big deal out of this, but since he is talking about 'Hanification' ergo he has to show that these are permanent settlers, otherwise, what precisely is been Hanified if these people were to leave?

Another problem was the indication of a non-ethnicity blinded shift in wage changes. I haven't read Qiang and Xin so I will simply assume the argument presented by the author on what Qiang and Xin proposed is the authentic argument presented by Qiang and Xin, assuming that, the argument was, if all else remain the same, a change in ethnicity has a significant shift in wages per capita.

To which I must ask has one identify the 1) rural-urban divide, and 2) inland and coastal region.

Now the author has perhaps mentioned the rural-urban divide in brief, but it was ignored in this argument completely. Do urban Uighur populations see a similar shift in income as do urban Hans, and do rural Uighur populations see a similar shift in income as do rural Hans? Without identifying that, it is difficult to say whether ethnicity drives economic development [although personally, I would have to argue that ethnicity almost certainly do play a part, the question is how much] more than the urban and rural divide.

Another more important aspect is the coastal and inland divide. We should also look at minorities living on the coast and see if their economic prospect reflects similarly to either Han on the coast, or if they mirror Uighurs. If it does not reflect with the wages of the Uighurs, then we should look further to whether or not the coastal-inland divide is more significant than the ethnic divide.

Now the author does make the point that it's more gray than black and white on the wages etc so I will gave her that.

And my issue with this is more that it is not precisely related and only touches on issues we are talking about in brief. I complain about this 'colonialism issue, it is an issue because you and I are talking about it, but she is not concerned with that particular topic regardless of what her title says. She is interested in the question of whether or not Beijing's investment spurs economic activities and growth, and she presented the Beijing narrative and Uighur narrative and contrasted and tested both theories.

For the second paper, I simply have the question on his data from 1945. I don't believe there are any credible census data in the interwar period from Japan's surrender and the resumption of the Chinese Civil War. So going from his data from the 80s onward, then there are questions on how he differentiates permanent settlers and economic migrants. He doesn't distinguish them [in the sense that his paper wasn't focus on permanent settlement] but he does mention that more recent migrants are more likely to be self-motivated [in contrast to state-motivated] by economic development.

This simply shows that while these paper talks about things similar to what you are talking in topics, they aren't showing what you claimed, ie, Ethnic replacement.

That is in the second paper, you can see the % of Uighurs from 82 at 45.7%, and 50% in 96, and 46.1% in 2008.

Which simply does not justify your claim that there is an ethnic replacement shift.

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u/ItRead18544920 29d ago

I am going to start off by apologizing for providing irrelevant academic sources. The second paper was published in 2008, before the current genocide began. The first paper only touches tangentially on our subject, as you already stated. I hastily dropped two sources without much consideration because the current environment in Xinjiang and China more generally is not conducive whatsoever to robust and transparent academic studies on such a sensitive topic and I therefore concluded that you were not asking in good faith. However, seeing how you’ve taken the time to go over my (bad) sources and give thoughtful feedback, I will attempt to provide better, more relevant sources.

Why Scholars and Activists Increasingly Fear a Uyghur Genocide in Xinjiang

This paper published to the Journal of Genocidal Research is a good starting point as it gives a decent overview of the general academic consensus around this issue.

The Uyghur Minority in China: A Case Study of Cultural Genocide, Minority Rights and the Insufficiency of the International Legal Framework in Preventing State-Imposed Extinction

This legal analysis provides an overview of the persecution of the Uyghurs by the state, and why it should meet the definition of cultural genocide under international law.

INTERNMENT AND INDOCTRINATION — XI’S ‘NEW ERA’ IN XINJIANG

This book chapter provides a summary of the current persecution, with details on some of the cultural practices that are being targeted and a brief overview into the political machinations that initiated what I am inclined to call a genocide. You will have to scroll to the bottom of the page to read the chapter.

Religious Repression of Uighurs in Xinjiang

This 115 page analysis by the Human Rights Watch specifically examines the cultural aspect of this cultural genocide including but not limited to the “reeducation” of imams, mass incarceration, and the destruction of mosques.

China's crime against Uyghurs is a form of genocide

This paper details the national and geopolitical importance of the Xinjiang region, the history of Han oppression of the Uyghurs, and their current persecution today.

The Bingtuan: China’s Paramilitary Colonizing Force in East Turkestan

This 45 page analysis by the Uyghur Human Rights Project provides a historical overview of the Bingtuan, also known as the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC). It is is a paramilitary organization in East Turkestan that answers directly to the central Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government in Beijing. It has long been an instrument of Han colonialism in East Turkestan that reinforced ethnic divisions.

CHINA’S SYSTEM OF OPPRESSION IN XINJIANG: HOW IT DEVELOPED AND HOW TO CURB IT

This report details the origins of the Xinjiang issue and possible solutions to what is now considered a genocide.

If you don’t know how, just learn: Chinese housing and the transformation of Uyghur domestic space

This paper analyses the colonial aspects of the CCP’s elimination of Uyghur identity and its replacement with the Han Chinese identity through the prism of the transformation of domestic spaces.

AUTONOMY IN XINJIANG: HAN NATIONALIST IMPERATIVES AND UYGHUR DISCONTENT

This paper analyzes the sources of Uyghur discontent and ethnonational conflict in Xinjiang since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949.

All of these should be taken with a grain of salt, however. Like I said before, actual academic analysis is hard to produce because of how violent and restrictive the regime has become. The foreign press has been greatly restricted in its ability to cover the situation. Furthermore, the Chinese government has put great effort, using propagandistic means, to deny or downplay what is actually happening. These efforts at the very least imply a genuine and very powerful fear of exposure.

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u/randomguy0101001 29d ago

I am reading your first source, and I will begin first by saying while this author may have some understanding of Qing history, I believe she is confusing the term imperialism if she thinks the NQH believes Qing practices imperialism, although some of them do suggest there is a thing as 'Manchu Colonalism' [Perdue's China Marches West gives you a very good rundown on this event]. But the reason why there is a Manchu qualifier to colonialism is to specifically distinguish it from other forms of colonialism and then we need to note that colonialism is different from imperialism.

That said, the introduction/'Background to Genocide' leaves much to desire. Since she misunderstood there was a nation controlled by Qing [thus imperalism] and that nation does not have independence, she views it as a cause for the current problem. She fails to identify that while it is very true that there are most certainly independence movements in Central Asia, there are also opposite views [and of course there are events in which Qing forces fail to identify loyalists and secessionists in the 19th century leading to some pretty sad events]. Calling them a nation thus is a gross generalization.

Then we go to the 20th century, which was sort of fine, but then comes the 21st century. And we hit the mega load of news as sources.

For one, she quoted Zenz's [at least] 2 million Han Chinese

in

Between 2015 and 2018, about 860,000 ethnic Han residents left Xinjiang, while up to 2 million new residents were added to Xinjiang’s Han majority regions. Also, population growth rates in a Uyghur region where Han constitute the majority were nearly 8 times higher than in the surrounding rural Uyghur regions (in 2018). These figures raise concerns that Beijing is doubling down on a policy of Han settler colonialism.

And in his source he stated

Gulbagh Residential District in Hotan City: 15.17‰, Hotan County: 2.22‰. Sources: see main text body.

OK, well, that's just bad paper writing, but sure, I will check your main body.

Notably, Xinjiang’s gap between the two types of populations started to appear in 2015, and by 2018 amounted to a staggering 2.03 million (see Figure 4). [11] Of these, 1.28 million were reported in Urumqi and 0.71 million in XPCC regions, all regions with Han majority populations (the XPCC figure increased to 0.81 million in 2019; Urumqi’s 2019 figures only report the permanent resident population). [12] Consequently, Xinjiang’s actual Han population share in 2018 can be estimated at 39.8 percent, near its historical peak. [13]

So I imagine the 2 million are noted here. Now this, without checking for footnote seems to justify the claim that there is replacement [or attempts to do so]. So let's check what source 12 says.

There is no ethnic breakdown for permanent residents. A small number of these may have been Uyghurs who were forced to return to their original home regions from other parts of China in 2017 and 2018. However, it is unclear whether they had changed their household registration when they left Xinjiang in the first place, or whether their household registration was changed upon return to Xinjiang. While Xinjiang’s XPCC population also increased, their numbers are already included in Xinjiang’s overall household registered population (Urumqi City Government, June 4, 2019; XPCC Government, April 26).Urumqi’s 2019 figures only cite the permanent resident population (Xinjiang Government, June 8).

So what is it, Zenz? Are these permanent populations?

Just for the sake of the argument I went to the Chinese government's census site and look it up, the household registered population [likely, since I am guessing from his English writing without knowing if it matches with the Chinese writing of the government] includes 1) people who lived there currently or those whose hukou is waiting for confirmation 2) people whose hukou is there but are not living there for at least half a yr and 3) hukou is there but will be out of there for less than half a yr and 4), those whose hukou is there but are abroad for study.

In fact, the census provided data for the change in the 6th & 7th census where 2.17M additional Han Chinese of which 1.95M were inter-provincce migration and 1.62M additional Uighurs.

What can we say about a settlement policy? [I don't know why he would estimate it according to Finley since the 2.17 M has been given in the census report] Not much, since the important bits need further research [and since I'm not paid I will pass on this research] on the % of Han in that population group age 15-59 [the Chinese census break down to 0-14, 22%, 15-59, 66%, 60 and above, 11%], and is that a normal reflection of settlement policy [compare with a normal Han city] or a migration dominated by working-age adults and a dreath of youth and retirees.

OK so, we are still on pg 5 of the first source.

And my take is basically whenever someone quotes Zenz I simply find that you have to do your own research again just to make sure he is correct and then do your own analysis because once you got the data you wonder, hey, how did he make that jump in conclusion?

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u/ItRead18544920 28d ago

Before we continue, I would like to clarify our positions.

I believe that there is a cultural genocide occurring in Xinjiang presently, perpetrated by the CCP to destroy the Uyghur population, both culturally and demographically.

I believe that the CCP has made continued efforts since at least the 1950s to increase the number of Han Chinese in the provinces of Xinjiang, efforts that continue to this day.

My conclusion is that if you are trying to destroy one people in a region and increase the number of another people in the same region, you are most likely trying to replace the former.

Do you agree or disagree?

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u/[deleted] 29d ago

The British did the same thing in India when they colonized them. Do you think they did it for the welfare of the Indians? The delusion is so high here.

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u/randomguy0101001 29d ago

Heh. I wasn't aware that under the Brits India became an industrialized state.

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u/VladThe1mplyer Aug 16 '21

Except its over and much of the stuff they built was exploitative infrastructure. The most apt comparision to what China did is to European Empires in the 1800s going in to Africa, building roads and railrways and then siphoning the resources of the nation out along those roads and railways back to the home country. These thing weren't good for Africa then or good for Africa now. Jesus a lot of time i come on this sub and it seems like yall are stuck looking in the short term on stuff like China and Africa, without actually looking long term or back into the history of these regions either. https://www.euromoney.com/article/b1lx4xdjgghf3z/china-end-of-the-belt-and-road

This. Most people are pretending that China is not doing exactly what European Empires were doing in the 1800s simply because it is not a European country doing it. The other ones will say that because various European Empires did it hundred of years ago then China should be excused for doing the same thing now.

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u/IWasOnceBiased 29d ago

Europeans didn't stop doing this 100s of years ago. And America has pretty much just stopped doing this recently. Not all of China's investments are bad, I'm certainly opposed to them though but even more so is me being tired by Westerners crying about China influence in Africa and how exploitative it is when their own governments had a much more negative history than them even just counting the last 2 decades.

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u/demarchemellows Aug 16 '21 edited Aug 16 '21

Yes, and that is what the Chinese are doing. Actually building infrastructure, opening factories, giving jobs to people. At least in the urban areas, Chinese influence will be far greater than that of the United States.

This is completely false and very easy to research.

Here are the top Africa investor economies by FDI stock, 2019 and 2015 amounts, in billions of USD.

Netherlands (67, 102)

UK (66, 58)

France (65, 62)

China (44, 35)

USA (43, 52)

Mauritius (37, 17)

South Africa (33, 22)

Italy (31, 21)

Singapore (20, 17)

Switzerland (15, 13)

The combined investment of the "Western" nations exceeds that of China by a factor of 6.5 to 1. Chinese investment is just now, in a single year, exceeding that of the US. It will take another decade+ for China to overtake the US in cumulative investment. The only thing China has going for it here is that they succeeded in branding and marketing their FDI better than everyone else with the BRI.

https://unctad.org/news/covid-19-slashes-foreign-direct-investment-africa-16

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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21

[removed]

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u/demarchemellows Aug 16 '21

What are you talking about? Example of other countries not looking out for their investment?

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u/shiggyshagz Aug 16 '21

Hows the koolaid

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u/IamFluffy94 Aug 16 '21

When you're on a sub called geopolitics, it would serve you well to read accounts by actual journalists instead of UN reports which are at best, inaccurate due to ignorance and at worst deliberately misleading.

Here are some examples:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/17/chinese-investment-africa-involves-more-than-megaprojects-private-enterprises-also-are-making-their-mark/

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/africaatlse/2021/04/02/why-substantial-chinese-fdi-is-flowing-into-africa-foreign-direct-investment/

Watch documentaries by journalists working for European news channels like DW, France 24 and even the BBC.

Chinese FDI in Africa is insidiously hidden behind a veil of goodwill and employment of locals. China recognises that a flourishing Africa will help expand their sphere of influence. I don't expect you to understand that soft power by reading UN reports.

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u/demarchemellows Aug 16 '21 edited Aug 16 '21

Got post removed because I used the S-word.

Nothing you posted addresses the undeniable fact that "the West" invests 6+ times more into Africa than China.

Chinese investment is certainly creating jobs, but the US and Europe are creating / have created a ton more. Those are undeniable facts.

Your articles are tainted by framing the debate into a US vs. China competition. Completely ignoring the role of Europe in Africa and how the US works closely with European partners in its investments. China is starting to invest more than the US, wake me up in 20 years when they overcome the EU.

And speaking of soft power: Africans have identically positive views of US and Chinese investment. But when asked what country serves as the best model for development, Africans choose the US (32%) over China (23%), followed by their former colonial power and South Africa (11% each).

https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Dispatches/ad407-chinas_perceived_influence_in_africa_decreases-afrobarometer_dispatch-14nov20.pdf

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u/Hoargh Aug 16 '21

Take your own advice there. You assume European journalists are immune to taking bribes or spreading misinformation. The blog you posted is from this woman:

https://www.lse.ac.uk/africa/people/Researchers/Shirley-Yu

I am sure she is definitely not a biased person being the director of the China- Africa initiative for the lalji centre.

The perception of substantial Chinese investments overshadowing western is common. We see it in European union members who boast about China giving them aid even though EU aid is greater than China's.

Here is when Italy thumped their chest on China's corona aid:

https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-foreign-minister-hails-chinese-caronavirus-aid/

https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/chinas-disinformation-campaign-in-italy/

And then the equipment turned out to not even work.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/09/25/almost-70-of-chinese-kn95-masks-dont-meet-minimum-safety-standards/

This is but one example. It does not matter what narrative the media wants to create. European news channels are not immune to dis information campaigns.

Concerning Chinese investments in Africa i am sure you have seen videos and reports of riots at Chinese production facilities in Africa. How much of that is even reported?

https://theconversation.com/areas-in-africa-with-more-chinese-backed-projects-were-more-likely-to-experience-protests-162137

https://africaotr.com/video-warning-to-china-as-nigerians-burn-down-chinese-factories-to-ashes/

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u/randomguy0101001 Aug 16 '21

Professor Shirley Ze Yu is a leading voice on China’s political economy and Director of the China-Africa Initiative at the LSE Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa. She is also a research fellow with the Ash Center of Harvard Kennedy School, a Professor at the IE Business School and a distinguished foreign faculty Professor at the National Defence University, Pakistan.

Additionally, Professor Yu is the creator of a daily intelligence and insights newsletter on China for Fortune Global 500 stakeholders - China BIG Idea - and a NY-based business talk show Hey China!, as well as a frequent commentator and contributor on the BBC News, Bloomberg, CNN, Al Jazeera, PBS Frontline, S&P Global and Channel News Asia on China. She is a column contributor to the Financial Times and the National News, among others, and a South China Morning Post Expert.

Are you telling me she is spreading fake news because she is a the director of the China- Africa initiative for the lalji centre, or because she is a Chinese person?

Do you know who host this center?

You can mail to them at

Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa, Pethick-Lawrence building, 8th floor, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, WC2A 2AE

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u/VladThe1mplyer Aug 16 '21

Are you telling me she is spreading fake news because she is a the director of the China- Africa initiative for the lalji centre, or because she is a Chinese person?

I think he is hinting at a conflict of interest but you can derail the discussion and make it about ethnicity if you want.

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u/randomguy0101001 Aug 17 '21

A conflict of interest on what?

What is this interest as a scholar from the London School of Economics is having that is contrary to good scholarship?

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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21

[deleted]

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u/VladThe1mplyer Aug 16 '21

Yep. Most construction companies who are awarded those infrastructure projects only hire Chinese and most factories tend to do the same.

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u/Express_Cheetah4664 29d ago

Not true. Have you ever seen a building site anywhere in Nigeria with more than 1 Chinese worker per 10 local guys? This generalisation about entirely Chinese factories came from a few articles published about Southern Africa over a decade ago and they don't add up. What Chinese is going to travel halfway across the world to work for a Nigerian salary? Please, wages here do the work of labour protectionism, damn if they had Chinese working on the urban transit it would have been finished years ago because a Chinese labour force could not be put on standby and paid as poorly as the local workers.

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u/VladThe1mplyer Aug 16 '21

Yes, and that is what the Chinese are doing. Actually building infrastructure, opening factories, giving jobs to people. At least in the urban areas, Chinese influence will be far greater than that of the United States.

Those factories tend to be manned by Chinese workers. Most infrastructure projects are done by Chinese companies who tend to only hire Chinese. The wealth generated rarely stays in the country those factories are built in.

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u/FredWatanabe Aug 16 '21

What are African governments doing about corruption? It's time Africa took care of it's self.

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u/AbWarriorG Aug 16 '21

Uh how about no.... As an African myself, this mentality of looking to others for help needs to end fast or we're not going anywhere good with it. How about clearing out your corrupt officials, re organizing the army, mobilizing the people and dealing with the Terrorists once and for all?

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u/Kbek Aug 17 '21

Thank you for owning the situation. It's that way of thinking that will allow Africa to achieve its potential.

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u/ItRead18544920 29d ago

The problem is that these nations are the fragile product of colonial map drawing and have persisted only because the current global order has enforced their sovereignty externally for the most part (there are glaring exceptions). The moment the Americans begin to withdraw, these nations will collapse at speeds not unlike what Afghanistan is currently experiencing.

I am hoping that after a period of great turmoil, Africa will reconstruct itself into an order that more closely resembles the reality of the continent, providing some much needed stability. This is of course incredibly optimistic.

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u/legendarygael1 Aug 16 '21

That is what I call good timing..

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u/dandaman910 Aug 16 '21

No. The west should be done with Aiding corrupt governments . We should have learned our lesson by now. Aid for Honest democracies only.

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u/ARandomPerson380 Aug 17 '21

Exactly

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u/a_reasonable_thought Aug 16 '21

This is all very rich coming from Buhari, who is currently stirring up civil war in Nigeria.

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u/HereticalCatPope Aug 16 '21

He’s overseeing one of the most resource and labor rich countries in Africa, and he still manages to make everything worse. The Nigerian government has the capacity to prevent the majority of kidnappings and occupation of territory in northern regions, he just doesn’t seem to care.

Not to seem too pessimistic, but Nigeria is going to go the way of Sudan, it simply isn’t sustainable religiously or ethnically to hold it together. The only reason the north won’t let the south secede is the oil.

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u/Red_Riviera Aug 16 '21

Which would be good for everyone but the Hausa really, Biafra had oil and the Yoruba have Lagos

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u/HereticalCatPope Aug 16 '21 edited Aug 16 '21

Serious question here, what would be a good solution for the Hausa? Would they not be able to integrate into a theoretical North Nigeria? Do they not share similar culture than of the Fulani? I don’t know much about distribution of Nigerian ethnic groups beyond a predominantly Muslim North and Christian South, so forgive my ignorance here. Could/should multiple new countries be the end result, or could the North have a federation of sorts? Maybe that would be the best solution if there is ethnic strife? Autonomy, but still the political power of millions of people?

ETA: I am really interested in Nigeria and what may happen there, hopefully peace, but I don’t see how Sharia in the Northern areas can be allowed while the south seems to largely be governed through more or less secular law if I’m not mistaken. It really seems to be operating as two states by default anyway. Maybe religion could supersede ethnic and linguistic identities and just result in two states, much as it was administered during colonial times? Or an]m I stupid in thinking that this could be eased by having two states versus multiple states? I just don’t want to think of a Balkanized Nigeria unless that’s what would be the most viable solution.

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u/Red_Riviera Aug 16 '21

I’m not sure. The Hausa are largest ethnic group in the north so I have no clue how they’d handle relations if the country split along the major ethnic fault lines since the economically important areas are predominantly in the south

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u/HereticalCatPope Aug 16 '21

So it’s kind of like a forced marriage I guess? But I really think the South wants a divorce. Maybe an agreement when it comes to raw resources could be a solution, like South Sudan having the majority of oil, but the North having the refineries?

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u/Red_Riviera Aug 16 '21

Forced marriage is exactly what it was historically speaking when south and north Nigeria were unified by the British

But I doubt compromise is an option. I think it’s make or break at this stage. A unified Nigeria either works or it falls apart

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u/HereticalCatPope Aug 16 '21

Thank you for the reply, that’d be the last thing Africa needs with Ethiopia getting close to civil war. I knew about the separate administration during colonial times, and I hope there can be a reasonable outcome, otherwise I simply don’t know how Nigeria in its current state could be sustainable or use its potential to develop effectively. Again, thanks, I really enjoy talking about this!

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u/Red_Riviera Aug 17 '21 edited Aug 17 '21

That’s fine and I don’t mind talking, personally I think it might be better just to let some regions balkanise. Ethiopia is essentially a still unified medieval empire and the cracks are showing and only the north loses out in The case with Nigeria. Somaliland has also done really well since splitting from Somalia. It’s not necessarily bad for a state to balkanise looking at the aftermath of such situations it does stabilise a region somewhat

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u/HereticalCatPope Aug 17 '21

Somaliland everyday. They deserve international recognition. It’s a country. It’s more of a country than Yemen, or South Sudan.

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u/KingofFairview Aug 16 '21

Things are going to get much, much worse if Ethiopia collapses, as now seems possible

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u/HereticalCatPope Aug 16 '21

The OLA joining the TPLF is a terrifying development that isn’t getting enough attention. We’re going to see genocide if this isn’t settled quickly. I’m also afraid of Ethiopian collapse leading to a power vacuum on the longest border with Somalia. When Sudan is more preferable than Ethiopia, that’s an issue. We are living in an age of civil and ethnic wars. At a very high cost, colonial lines on the map will be changed.

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u/Kinkyregae Aug 16 '21

How about countries start solving their own problems?

0

u/Prophet_Muhammad_phd Aug 16 '21

Yea, well, we've got bigger fish to fry. China isn't going to put pressure on itself.

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u/311polo Aug 16 '21

Good governance, lower corruption, increased security, foreign investment, educational opportunities, and jobs. U.S. Military aid can sort of help with those things, but until leaders can address those items, they will have a difficult time either defeating terrorism or improving the livelihoods of their citizens and nation.

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u/IWasOnceBiased 29d ago

A ton of nations got worse from US government intervention. US market investment by private businesses >>> US government intervention. Foreign aid is also a scam.

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u/311polo 29d ago

Most got way better. But I agree that market investment is ideal. I don't want U.S. government intervention aside from aiding them as they need, but no forcing them to be us.

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u/IWasOnceBiased 29d ago

That is false. US always intervenes when there is mutual benefit involved. “Perceived” mutual benefit, so the pros for the superpower almost always are stronger than pros for the country in need of support. I’m unsure what you meant by forcing them to be us? Afghanistan training maybe?

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u/pandeysatyendra Aug 17 '21

I think they just need to stop following this book and what is in it.

9:5 "But when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the Pagans wherever ye find them, and seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem (of war); but if they repent, and establish regular prayers and practise regular charity, then open the way for them: for Allah is Oft-forgiving, Most Merciful." - Quran

1

u/BAPeach Aug 17 '21

US military help is not what you need look what they did to Afghanistan is that what you want

1

u/i8jomomma666 29d ago

Muhammadu Buhari: Africa needs Sleepy Joe Biden and the Angry Democrats to defeat terror.

Build Africa Back Better.

3

u/eristic1 28d ago

How about Africa does it itself?