r/geopolitics • u/SailaNamai • Aug 16 '21
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iraqi-refugee-camp-belarus-european-union-1.61176252
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u/SailaNamai Aug 16 '21
Submission Statement:
On August 6th Josep Borrell Fontelles (EU security policy chief) announced that Iraq had suspended all flights to Belarus.
In recent month several thousand Iraqi refugees have entered EU member state Lithuania from Belarus. That is a significant increase over the ~300 asylum applications Lithuania received in 2020.
Officials from the European Union and Lithuania see the increase of refugees as retalitory acts by Belarus in the wake of a wave of sanctions targeted at Belarus over human rights violations during the recent election and the forced landing of a Ryanair machine in Minsk. Belarus is apparantly issuing travel visa to Iraqi refugees, housing the refugees in state owned hotels or appartements and then charters buses for them to the border with Lithuania. This is a new form of hybrid warfare that has become more prominent in the last 6 years and is specfically tailored against western humanist values. Turkey has already used such tactics against Greece and Russia against Finland and Norway. Such tactics also give leverage to the country of origin. It is doubtful that Iraq has suspended flights with no concessions from the EU.
With relations between Belarus and the EU reaching a low point, Minsk can only turn to Moscow. For the time Lukashenko stays in power a thawing of relations between the West and Belarus seems unlikely.
What do you think the future holds for the „last dictatorship in Europe“ now that the dust of the election has settled? I was under the impression that both Russia and Belarus were not too keen on continuing the road towards the Union State. With Belarus now essentially a satellite nation do you think that plan has gotten new life? Lukashenko will celebrate his 67th birthday this august. What are the likely outcomes if he either dies or steps down in the (near) future?
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u/KingofFairview Aug 16 '21
I think at this point Belarus isn’t going to be breaking out of Moscow’s orbit. The security forces are pretty clearly on Lukashenko’s side, and any successor that comes from within the current establishment is likely to be fairly pro-Russian. I don’t see any revolution succeeding and I think the EU would actually prefer to leave Belarus as a buffer state between Poland and Russia.
I don’t think Russia is on the cusp of formally annexing it, but I think they’ll become more and more integrated until they are de facto unified and then it may or may not be made official. A significant minority of Belarussians may actually be in favour of this, so it’s far from impossible.
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u/SailaNamai Aug 16 '21
I agree that Lukashenko can probably rule by force and threat as long as he is able.
Part of why Belarus is targeting Lithuania is that large parts of the Belarusian diaspora are hosted there. The actions Lukashenko is now taking and the bluntness of the "plane-jacking" without any plausible deniability suggest to me that he is fairly concerned about a movement against him gaining more traction. Though obviously I'm speculating here. It's also possible Lukashenko took a page of the Russian playbook to simply send a message and considers the fallout acceptable (I think if that is the case he grossly misjudged the response). Still I agree with you that a revolution seems poised to fail, if only for Russian intervention if the stakes are high enough.
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u/kaik1914 29d ago
I agree that Russia will use Belarus as a buffer zone between EU and Russia. It is more beneficial as it has a control over it while maintaining its formal independence.
What is unpredictable, is confrontation between Belarus and its former Soviet republic like Ukraine, Latvia, and Lithuania. Also Poland position is ambivalent or rather not consistent with its eastern neighbors.
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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 16 '21
It seems inevitable to me that Belarus and Russia will rejoin, and the evidence I always rely on for that is how the Belarusian language is treated.
Rather than encourage a distinct Belarusian ethnic nationalism the government has de facto pushed it aside in favour of Russian, a situation that continues to see Belarusian language and culture marginalized both in public and at home.
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u/SailaNamai Aug 16 '21
Interesting, I agree such a state of affairs could lead to unification. I must admit that I know next to nothing about Belarusian internals. Could you expand a little more, like is this reflected in the school system or how does it manifest? Would you consider the status quo regarding this as being forced on Belarus by Russia or does it have some domestic roots?
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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 16 '21
It is reflected in all aspects of society. Belarusian is largely absent from any government services and schooling is not only not supported but often targeted by authorities.
The reasons behind this are complex. In the early 90s there was a strong push from the central government to promote Belarusian and at the start of the country's independent period it was the sole official language. Both Russian and domestic forces have conspired against this since 1994 however.
Part of the challenge for the government is not only the relationship between Russia and Belarus, but also the tensions over similar efforts in the Baltic states. In that sense the challenge is similar to the one Ukraine has faced establishing an ethno-nationalist state.
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u/SailaNamai 29d ago
Thank you. I suppose that's still aftershocks from the collapse of the SU? Seems I have some digging to do. Can you recommend a book/documentary or the likes?
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u/Spoonfeedme 29d ago
Unfortunately Belarus has not been something heavily covered in the news or mass media and finding a book or journal article is scarce at the moment.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/20628622
This gives you a breakdown of the challenge Belarus faced in the decade after the SU fell and it lays out my feelings on the topic fairly well.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/30/the-birth-of-belarusian-nationalism/
This is a more recent article that explains some of the challenges with a country trying to milk a civic nationalism of a dead state to maintain a current one.
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u/SailaNamai 28d ago
I spent a lot of time trying to find that paper somewhere else because I wasn't about to spent $50 on ~30 pages. So I clicked through a lot of polish (which I can't read) websites trying to find it but came up empty.
I finally came up with this paper from the same author:
What future for Belarus? An analysis of identity issues - Ryszard RadzikAt one point it cites a poll where 40% of Belarusians see no difference between Belarusian and Russian culture. 57% agreed that Belarusians and Russians are one nation (page 5, 6). It also provides some detail about the unique approach the Soviets took in Belarus. Good read for anyone who is interested.
And thank you Spoonfeedme for pointing me in the right direction.
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u/Spoonfeedme 28d ago
You're welcome. I think the second link is also important because lacking ethno nationalism is not necessarily bad it you have a strong civic nationalism. Belarus's civic structures are essentially zombie USSR which means there really isn't any domestic counterbalance to Russian nationalism.
But you're welcome. Sorry they weren't easier to locate.
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u/SailaNamai 28d ago
Don't worry about it, its not your fault. Research is part of life.
Yep, the FP article is a good read too. I forgot to mention it. It's also from a very different reality for Belarus (as are the two papers above). In retrospect its astonishing how things turned so fast. Though there might be a soft reset once Lukashenko leaves power.
I think you hit the nail on the head regarding Belarusian civic structures, that got shaped in large parts through the influence of soviet ideology and now, without a heavy enough national counterweight, sort of "linger". It helps to explain the apathy when it comes to the language being forced into obscurity. Seven Belarusian-language schools in total in a country of ~9 million. Stunning.
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u/Spoonfeedme 28d ago
And not a single post secondary institution.
Again I don't think this would be such a concern if their neighbors weren't who they are.
As a counter example, in Canada we have a very civic form of nationalism that has a core identity built around how we aren't Americans which has developed over the past century and a half. I am certainly not an expert but articles like the ones we are discussing don't really help me develop any faith that the Belarusian citizens have such a strong "we aren't Russian" feeling. If such a situation existed in Canada I would be much more worried about my country even with centuries rather than decades of being independent.
Indeed it took us more than 6 decades to develop enough of an identity to stop considering ourselves British. And that was with an ocean between us and Britain.
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u/SailaNamai 28d ago edited 28d ago
On the other hand that article also hints at how easy it can be to promote any form of nationalism. Which is what I think Lukashenko tried in order to gain some leverage over Putin during negotiations.So, while I'm not so sure that a definition as not Russian couldn't develop in a relatively short amount of time (much shorter than it took you Canadians), I certainly agree that with a neighbor like Russia and the current political landscape that is a dangerous proposition.
Switzerland with its 4 official languages (German, French, Italian and Rheto-Romance) might be a good example too. Most Swiss would also proudly identify as such. Other then Belarus Switzerland has geographic features that encouraged a national identity.
I must admit it's hard for me to envision civic nationalism but an absence of ethno-nationalism. In Germany civic nationalism and ethno-nationalism both have been largely absent in public (at least from my perspective). Civic nationalism still is. While by large we do uphold individual freedoms and strife towards a more equal and inclusive society that effort is perceived as separate from the state (a misconception but it's there). It was during the 2006 world cup held here that the social taboo of showing the national flag was broken. Still, if one were to do that on regular days one would be considered far-right. As for ethno nationalism, many (myself included) were surprised by the strong undercurrent that came to the surface in 2015/2016 during the Syrian refugee crisis. Of course for Germans there are obvious historical reasons why we have a unique relation with nationalism.
I suppose that you Canadians did neither promote a Canadian identity nor tried to suppress British identity on a government level? That would explain why it took so long to develop on its own. I had also considered the Canadian-US American attitudes of "mocking" each other as more playful. Granted that is based on television.
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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21
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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 16 '21
Ireland didn't just have an attempted democratic revolution put down with UK help, and when they did it resulted in a partitioned state. Not a great example.
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u/[deleted] Aug 16 '21
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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 16 '21
I understand. I didn't claim otherwise. But without a distinct ethic identity the Belarusian state is moving towards unification.
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u/[deleted] Aug 17 '21
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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 17 '21
When your neighbor is pushing Russian nationalism as a primary foreign policy tool and has already used to annex territory from a neighbor, I think it has a pretty important role, particularly when it forms a core identity marker for every neighboring state as well.
I am not pretending to predict the future but your dismissal of its importance is a bit much, and I think I've already plainly laid out why despite your poor analogies.
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u/Jandur Aug 17 '21
Anecdotally, I was in Minsk for work in 2016 or so. I asked several people from different groups about their general thoughts on national/cultural identity with regards to being Belarusian vs Russian. No one had strong feelings about any sort of distinct Belarusian identity. They seemed almost indifferent about it all together.
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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 17 '21
Only a problem if your direct neighborhood includes an aspiring ethno-nationalist state with expansionist tendencies.
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u/RobotWantsKitty 29d ago
aspiring ethno-nationalist state with expansionist tendencies
Russia is anything but entho-nationalistic. Putin has dismantled much of the movement, because he sees it as a liability in a multicultural country.
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u/Spoonfeedme 29d ago
He can pretend he has, but I simply don't agree with that take given the heavy reliance on it to antagonize (and invade) his neighbors.
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u/RobotWantsKitty 29d ago
You don't have to be an ethnic nationalist to do that. Russia is one of the most diverse countries in the world, it wouldn't work, so I don't see what you mean by "pretending".
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u/Spoonfeedme 29d ago
I am clearly suggesting that he is pretending not to be to appease local ethnic groups but that he actions elsewhere make be believe otherwise.
I am clearly giving my opinion and downvoting me simply because you disagree with me isn't helping your argument.
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u/RobotWantsKitty 29d ago
I am clearly suggesting that he is pretending not to be to appease local ethnic groups but that he actions elsewhere make be believe otherwise.
His actions are jailing ethnic nationalist leaders, paying a tribute to Chechnya, open border policy with Central Asia which makes Russia top 5 by the number of migrants in the world, giving great autonomy to ethnic republics. You could maybe call him a civic nationalist, but actual ethnic nationalists dislike Putin. As far as they are concerned, he is too soft on the West and neighboring countries, and too eager to provide ethnic minorities with special treatment in Russia.
I am clearly giving my opinion and downvoting me simply because you disagree with me isn't helping your argument.
Wasn't me.
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u/setting-mellow433 26d ago
But isn't this a disadvantage to Lukashenko? He currently enjoys sitting on the throne as the leader of a sovereign nation. Joining with Russia means he won't enjoy that and will instead be below someone else.
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u/Spoonfeedme 26d ago
Yes. Which is probably why it hasn't happened.
My own personal guess is that as soon as this guy dies or is incapable Belarus will be at great risk.
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u/Nevermindever Aug 16 '21
US power declines, many countries may try to reach their geopolitical goals soon. Belarus may be testing ground..
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u/TheSwedishHistorian Aug 16 '21
Belarus seems to be stuck in unrest for a long time. Ukraine has gone towards and lost territories, but Belarus is showing the price of staying under Moscow's thumb.
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u/e9967780 Aug 17 '21 edited 29d ago
Ukraine is better off after loosing some territories because that reduced the russophiles to very defined small minority from a large minority that could swing elections.
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u/darth_bard 25d ago
Ignoring all the resources, capital and territory lost with them.
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u/e9967780 25d ago
Absolutely nothing comes cheap, what Finland lost to Soviet Russia including Vipuri a very big city and Karelia a huge region, it made up by providing a safe space to develop rest of Finland peacefully and without hinderance from Moscow. It’s a trade off, you always have to give the Russian bear its due so that you can survive peacefully.
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u/SeloBridok 22d ago
A very underrated take. I’ve been saying this forever. Ukraine has forged a strong national identity. Putin’s to emotional about Ukraine. Everyone’s obsessed over it. They made blunders in favour of Ukrainian patriotism.
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u/e9967780 17d ago
One has to just look at what happened to Finland, after loosing territory and 40 years of Finlandization it’s a strong country today, contemplating EU/NATO membership outside the control of Moscow not a easy task given that you a stone throwaway from “Leningrad”.
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u/Wazzupdj Aug 17 '21
The title of the article and reddit post don't match. The article itself isn't really about Belarus, but instead how the EU'S nascent geopolitical ambitions are intertwined with migration and border control, and the wider phenomenon of how states surrounding the EU have used immigration against the EU, including Belarus.
The fact that almost all comments are about Belarus and almost none about immigration makes me think most haven't read the article, which is rather disappointing.
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u/SailaNamai 29d ago edited 29d ago
Here we provide Submission Statements to every submission. If you read said statement it should become clearer. I could've done without the article, but wanted to provide some framework. Any comment you want to make about the broader picture is welcome too.
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u/javascript_dev 29d ago
I would argue that Belarus being absorbed into Russia is not a significant event in terms of power balance. My rationale is, the Russian model of strongarming, high corruption, etc, seems to weaken by the day against the European and especially American models of growth.
I see Russia falling behind Japan, India, and other lesser powers this century unless they do a 180. Which may not be possible.
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u/fatbastard2005 29d ago
I don't know if this reflects the EU and NATO, but many Europeans I know (mainly eastern Europeans) want Belarus as a buffer state between European and Russian forces.
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u/SailaNamai 29d ago
Its always tough to generalize something like this. From my (central European) perspective I must admit that Belarus does not really enter the discourse besides scoring easy political points for internal use. I'd say there is no political or popular will whatsoever to challenge Russia on the status quo. Nobody here wants another Ukraine. I think its largely the same for NATO. But of course I don't know what is happening in backchannels/behind the scenes.
I can definitely understand that many eastern European nations rather have a buffer. Though I must also say that a buffer which is firmly aligned with one side carries risks of its own.
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u/fatbastard2005 28d ago
It should also be added that many of the polish that I've spoken too prefer this to increased military spending and Ukraine-NATO cooperation. I don't know as much about right wing polish, or Europeans in general.
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