Alright apes, strap in your seat belts for some logical enough DD.

I like AI/ML, a lot. This shit’s gonna change the world - especially Large Language Models like Chat GPT. It’s like the invention of the search engine on steroids. Chat GPT Passes Medical License Exam, Bar Exam. It will write papers, code, problem solve, strategize for you - you name it. 1 programmer who knows LLMs is worth 4 programmers who don't; learn to use them, or get left in the dust.

https://preview.redd.it/y7uqfzr8zkga1.png?width=1579&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=70729d349926d8608363a37a917bef087046cb0c

But the most obvious, pressing issue is with “get some poor asian kid on the other side of the world to do your homework for you” Chegg. This company has not sufficiently prepared for the reckoning.

I've used it for my own Computer Organization & Architecture HW and Computer Science HW (as a learning tool *wink*). It's an amazing, versatile tool if you put sufficient details in the prompt, whiiiiiich is why it’s superior to Chegg.

It can solve problems that haven't even been added to their database yet - like concerning new assignments or material from new professors. You can also ask it to elaborate and explain certain problem-solving steps, which Chegg cannot provide if there's only one solution uploaded - you've got as much as the poor asian kid decided to write down 💀

College students are the most significant demographic of Chegg, and the competition of free vs. $15/mo for generally low cash flow customers is a no brainer. If you’re concerned about the plan for premium Chat GPT, according to CEO Sam Altman “users will still be able to access the chatbot for free” post release.

While Chat GPT doesn't have verification of veracity (truthfulness) nor precise equation manipulation yet, we can expect it and competing AIs to pursue such features moving forward. If equation solver-extraordinaire Wolfram Alpha has been publicly available for the ballpark of a decade, it does not seem like a stretch that this technology will be difficult to implement. Google’s equivalent “Apprentice Bard” is also coming “very soon” according to CEO Sundar Pichai.

Ok so it seemed too good to be true,

so I investigated to see if Chegg was working on integrating AI - since that would be a potential safeguard to retain clients they’ve lost since the pandemic (their peak when everyone was cheating at online school) has dwindled.

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https://preview.redd.it/if3rs3vmzkga1.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=2b0b0c15835f0fdb4b708ef0336e50a37b2618d7

Lol.

The normies haven’t even really figured it out yet

They started to realize there might be a problem Jan 18th

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https://preview.redd.it/jr7dz1nnzkga1.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=344138149421568e29b580e86e5b609137942f89

And while the CEO swooped in 2 days later to stop the bleeding, he made no substantial defense against the looming threat of Chat GPT and other LLMs coming soon.

Their last big AI news, as far as I've been able to tell, was the acquisition of WriteLab (basically a grammarly type fixer) in May 2018! Present day, they're either internally freaking out or execs are oblivious that their product is about to be made obsolete.

Only 5 days ago are milquetoast, boring investors starting to turn on Chegg. They have no idea of the Chat GPT storm coming.

CHGG is past expiration date, don’t get stuck holding the moldy bag. Puts 2/17 $20

Join the wave - surfs up 🏄🏄🏄

• star-player

I have never felt as loved as I have on this subreddit. It's truly a great community, with so many regards. I love the growing community and feel like I truly belong here, where not everyone is just showing off their successes but their failures too, like the failure I truly am. I love you all and hope to stick around for future endeavors like we have in the past, that have led to great gains and losses. I love you all, regards.

DD:

https://twitter.com/HedgeVision/status/1621637184678682625

Missed Earnings

CEO and other insiders selling:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nyse-now/servicenow/news/have-servicenow-inc-nysenow-insiders-been-selling-their-stoc

Busted growth story

Products will get margin-squeezed as "AI" companies come in and eat their lunch

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You know what to do...

posn: short 100 shares @ $463

Taking a look at this excerpt from bespoke that is absolutely insane. It shows you not only the strength of this rally when you look at certain dumb money stocks that have rallied 100%+ in single days… but that the overall market is in a straight bull frenzy right now.

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https://preview.redd.it/bgdotmd10nga1.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=ebcc8099ce95787e801fba8e6a32fc531e535604

The title says will tomorrow be a Jackson hole or a WSJ interview type of day? What do I mean by that?

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https://preview.redd.it/pbd5nl220nga1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=35b0ad8f1dfba58c8f177aadbdb77970ad29a825

Taking a look at this daily chart I have highlighted a few things here… the first is the Jackson hole day back on August 26th where JPOW really laid into the markets and we watched an incredible -3.38% red day shape form… and the next is when JPOW either purposefully or on accident went full dove and rallied the markets 3.15% intraday.

It is no doubt that the markets have NOT reacted properly to pretty much anything that JPOW said or any of the data since FOMC last week. The markets might finally listen tomorrow.

We are pretty much at a point right here on SPY that we are testing support of the daily 8ema and the black bull channel and have formed a really nice breakout triangle… tomorrow is going to either break us out massively to the upside and we will seek 419.5 before CPI next week…. OR we are going to lose support and break through the 405/406 support area and start looking for 390-400 before CPI next week.

I think we have finally come to a crossroads. Going into the November speech everyone pretty much expected the same thing for JPOW to crush the markets and be a hawk… however that is obviously not what happened. Algos have also found every sliver of bull new out there and rocketed on it. So tomorrow will be very interesting to watch.

JPOW speaks at 1240pm eastern time.

From a TA stand point If we we look back at January 19th and January 30th (highlighted by the arrows on the right side) you can see that we have actually seen spy during this 5-6 week long bull pattern come back down, test daily 8ema support and then continue the rally. Today being a doji close very well could be the bottom. Especially since we bounced off the daily 8ema and watching price action intraday 409.5 did not want to break no matter how many runs bears too at it. However, bulls also rejected aggressively at that 410.9 resistance area too. We truly are at a crossroads where there is an equal bull and bear case and honestly JPOW is likely to be the deciding factor tomorrow.

I would not be surprised to see more range/ chop tomorrow before JPOW speaks.

Key SPY Support- 409.6 -> 406.5 -> 405.3 -> 403 -> 400.7

Key SPY Resistance- 412.5 -> 414.8 -> 416.8

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https://preview.redd.it/25yuipm20nga1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=cb324da6a93a2f7416b666ede30fd31605ff1e0c

Futures shows a similar pattern here with that clear blue bull channel and red resistance line that forms the break out triangle. Today thought we did see that 4134 was too strong of resistance and that bulls could not recover that… that could form a case for a touch lower at 4085 to 4095 support. However this is a very nice looking morning doji star pattern and could very well lead to the upside tomorrow.

Truthfully if it wasn’t for JPOW tomorrow I would have been in some 14-30dte calls today. But like I said JPOW is very crucial to tomorrow and where we end up.

Key Futures Support- 4120 -> 4095 -> 4085 -> 4040 -> 4030

Key Futures Resistance- 4134 -> 4145 -> 4177 -> 4210

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https://preview.redd.it/jvvd0m230nga1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=daecde2b42bce80af63b79de560e4f43aa6e32be

Tesla remains strong but I believe its strength is about to come to a very dramatic conclusion this week if not tomorrow. Outside of a market wide pump or some sort of Elon pump I believe we are seeing the top put in here on Tesla.

As you can see here there is a rising wedge that started back the first week of January. We have touched resistance 3 times and we have touched support 3 times… its VERY minor but tesla did break that support line for the first time today. This is the first time that Tesla has been under the support line since January. When a rising wedge especially one with this type of magnitude breaks it usually results in a very large retrace.

Now if this happens to be a fake break through of support… tesla would still need to open over 199 tomorrow and hold that all day which is about a 2.5% open in order to maintain the integrity of that support line. That would also put Tesla at its 6th green day in a row and its 11th green day out of the last 12 trading days too… as strong and memey as tesla is… this type of strength cant sustain.

In addition today was the third day in a row that Tesla attempted to break out over that very critical 197.1 resistance and was unable to.

With the 3rd doji in a row, the 3rd rejection at 197.1 and the massive rising wedge support breaking I will be watching tesla closely for a red day tomorrow.

Key Tesla Daily Support- 190.1 -> 184.2 -> 181.6 -> 178 -> 173.8

Key Tesla Daily Resistance- 197.1 -> 200.8 -> 204.8 -> 208.7

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https://preview.redd.it/h0u0tde40nga1.png?width=614&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=92ecf1c533b19601c2f64ae9e8439144353425c5

I mentioned before that when the VIX and SPY have inverse patterns it is 99% of the time a good entry and a good play… with SPY closing that morning doji star pattern and VIX closing a evening doji star pattern I feel more confident in upside for SPY tomorrow. However, again I recognize the markets going to react to JPOW and that can change things…

Something else to keep in mind is that the VIX is once again approaching this blue falling wedge resistance line. This line essentially dates back to the October bottom on SPY. If we break through this line and especially if the VIX can reclaim 19.7 as support tomorrow there is an increasing case for the top to be in on SPY.

However, if the VIX once again shoots for the 17s/18s and JPOW can fluff the market again then this was the best opportunity to go long and we should look for a rally into CPI next week.

Daily log-

Definitely struggled today which is always disappointing to start the week off on that sort of note.

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https://preview.redd.it/v2zknow40nga1.png?width=780&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=77a7cc7a7b3ed4e890126ad28b94b38bd5f1a24c

Only real saving grace was the risky futes put I swang last second Friday and closed immediately at open Sunday. I was hoping markets would digest the new finally over the weekend… which they did… coulda been a 100%er had I held till open but I told myself green or red at open its closed last night.

Other then that the biggest trap I fell into today was that 409.4 to 409.9 support would break… that level is a major level I called out last week and no matter how convincing and how bearish the technical were we managed to bounce and not just bounce but pop $2 every time we touched it… Tough trading day today.

Looking forward to getting through JPOW tomorrow and hoping for a few good days to end the week.