r/worldnews • u/flyingcatwithhorns • Nov 18 '22
Missile fired on Friday by North Korea had sufficient range to reach U.S. mainland, Japan says North Korea
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-missile-had-range-reach-us-mainland-japan-says-2022-11-18/4.8k
u/tommyct614 Nov 18 '22
How tf are they so good at missile-making when half the country is starving?
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u/CSManiac33 Nov 18 '22
Because the people tha make the missile are the ones not starving
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u/EmotionalSuportPenis Nov 18 '22
And if they fuck up bad enough on the missiles, then they and their entire families get thrown into the starving category.
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u/thirstytrumpet Nov 18 '22
Some leaders just prefer the stick
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u/LuckilyLuckier Nov 18 '22
Stick has too many carbs. More starving needed. Maybe a twig?
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u/BaalKazar Nov 18 '22
I wouldn’t be to sure about that.
Rocket science actually is rocket science. It’s not as pioneer as in WW2 but still complicated enough to have a hard time finding new lead engineers for such systems.
Removing the wrong 3-4 people might already stall the program for a generation.
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u/TheOnlyFallenCookie Nov 18 '22
And they have a big interest to make good missiles so they keep not starving
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u/Illsaveit Nov 18 '22
I fuck up most tasks when I'm starving, so that's quite impressive.
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u/HalPrentice Nov 18 '22 •
Building rockets is no longer difficult. It’s called catch-up economics. All the knowledge is out there. It’s much easier to just learn and replicate what has been done before instead of innovating from the start.
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u/ThellraAK Nov 18 '22
I'd think the hardest part might be making your own GPS/Glonass/whatever chips that ignore the ITAR stuff.
After that it's really just scaling up something like this
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u/PistachioOnFire Nov 18 '22
ICBMs use stars as celestial navigation both because it is reliable and because they must be able to operate even at the very end of the world when satellites have been destroyed - before or after the launch. No one can destroy stars yet.
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u/micro_haila Nov 18 '22
I don't know about the North Korean ICBMs specifically, but i believe the vast majority of ICBMs use inertial navigation (high sensitivity gyroscopes and accelerometers). Relatively expensive, but self-reliant and based on very simple principles that need no cues whatsoever from the outside environment. Some do use celestial navigation, but only as a secondary system - they wouldn't really create one that can't find its way blindfolded.
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u/BrewsAndBurns Nov 18 '22
If I ever form a metal band our first album is going to be named "No One Can Destroy Stars Yet".
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u/alaphic Nov 18 '22
Your first album has to open with that clip of the Emperor saying, "Now, witness the power of this fully-operational battle station."
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u/ThellraAK Nov 18 '22
ICBM's traditionally use...
Don't really need any of it if the goal is to sabre rattle.
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u/gamedori3 Nov 18 '22
Well, someone is going to fish the NK missiles out of the ocean to see how they are guided and how accurate they are.
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u/Interesting-Main-287 Nov 18 '22
This comment needs more recognition than all the naive melodrama about secret exchanges of missile technology. That, of course, is also happening, but this demonstration doesn’t indicate much beyond North Korea continuing their tradition of copy/paste.
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u/MartianRecon Nov 18 '22
It's like in Civ when you skip something that takes 20 turns to research and keep putting it off, so late game you can go back and do the same research in 2 turns.
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u/revesvans Nov 18 '22
North Korea would be one to do Wheel after Computers.
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u/CapnMalcolmReynolds Nov 18 '22
They should probably research democracy next. They need to update their civics badly.
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u/rickreckt Nov 18 '22
Are you suggesting that Democratic People's Republic of Korea isn't democratic already? I mean it's in their name
/s
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u/Bokth Nov 18 '22
They're medical game is on point. 0 Covid cases until May 2022...then around 5M in a week
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u/Jonno_FTW Nov 18 '22
Or you stumble upon a remote uncontacted tribe in the Arctic and they teach you the secrets of rocketry.
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u/informat7 Nov 18 '22
This, a missiles that can travel from the US to North Korea (such as the Titan I) were developed in the 50s. The idea that North Korea has managed to catch up to 1950s tech isn't that crazy.
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u/Wonderor Nov 18 '22 •
The reason for their seemingly rapid development of better missiles after years of not much advancement is rather simple....
Someone is helping them - possibly in exchange for weapons and/or man power or possibly because that someone helping them is a little desperate as their invasion of Ukraine has been a bit of a shit show and they want to give their enemies someone else to worry about
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u/JessSuperSub Nov 18 '22
Even if Russia started helping them after Ukraine disaster, they can’t make such missiles in short time. They would have already had it for quite sometime.
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u/Automatic-Cellist910 Nov 18 '22
Let me introduce you to a little place called China
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u/CraftyFellow_ Nov 18 '22
China
Also known as the reason North Korea exists in the first place.
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u/Arinupa Nov 18 '22
And let me introduce you to a little place called Pakistan.
Especially the CIA and american allegations of helping North Korea with nuclear weapons part.
In 2002, information leaked that Pakistan has been the source of North Korea's recent development in nuclear warheads, according to US intelligence officials.[4]
Incidentally China's closest ally.
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u/gabu87 Nov 18 '22
You're drinking too much coolaid if you think China wants to see an unstable 'ally' with more military capability.
NK being a credibly threat to SK/JP is already enough for China.
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u/Explorer335 Nov 18 '22
North Korea has been using Soviet RDS-250 rocket engines for several years. Somebody gave them Soviet rocket engines and the UDMH/NTO propellant (which the Koreans can't produce themselves)
Unclear exactly what the Russians or Chinese get in return, or perhaps the whole plan was just to throw a gigantic middle finger to the USA.
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u/Arinupa Nov 18 '22
Wasn't Pakistan helping North Korea.
Pakistan has been accused by US officials of having secretly supplied North Korea with nuclear technology for military purposes.[3] The CIA claimed to have tracked several air shipments between the two countries via satellite. The US Government believes that Dr. A. Q. Khan, a senior atomic research scientist, had travelled to North Korea several times and provided crucial technological aid to the North Korean government to create HEU.
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u/Explorer335 Nov 18 '22
I like the quote about Dr. A. Q. Khan being placed under house arrest for "embarrassing" the country.
They aren't mad about what he did. They are mad he got caught.
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u/thirstytrumpet Nov 18 '22
It seems right in play with both nation's commitment to sowing chaos and expanding the threat model for the American military. I am not surprised that they both are deciding to allocate resources even in a downturn to try and impact American political climate when we stand to lose much more to inflation and anti democratic sentiment than they do to exploiting their populations that are already primed for it.
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u/jr12345 Nov 18 '22
Step 1: Don't give a fuck about your citizens
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u/Itsallgood190 Nov 18 '22
It took them a while. Only a few years ago people laughed at the idea that they’d make anything with decent range.
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u/green_flash Nov 18 '22
Every country of similar size would be ravaged by occasional famines if they were entirely cut off from international trade and had to rely on domestic food production alone, even moreso if they - like North Korea - wouldn't have access to fossil-fuel-based fertilizers. International trade is what has taken away the menace of failing crops, not our superior technology.
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u/likwidchrist Nov 18 '22
It's also important to keep in mind that North Korea doesn't have a lot of land that's suitable for farming. Plus what they do have can and has flooded in the past.
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u/IlluminatedPickle Nov 18 '22
Because making missiles isn't all that difficult. It's a big stick filled with propellant.
Making them hit their target is the hard part.
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u/CraigslistAxeKiller Nov 18 '22
How is the US so good at war-making when half the country doesn’t have health care?
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u/External-Platform-18 Nov 18 '22
It’s early 1960s technology, with all the advancements in manufacturing and computing we’ve made in the 60 years since.
Nukes are 1940s tech, so obviously they achieved that first.
If you saw this level of technological sophistication in another field, “North Korea capable of manufacturing affordable colour TV, Japan says” you wouldn’t be particularly impressed.
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u/CokeFanatic Nov 18 '22
Same reason the US can always afford new bombs and never new schools. Priorities.
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u/lollroller Nov 18 '22
Even if they had the capability, why would North Korea ever fire a single missile toward the U.S. that either came close, or actually hit?
They would be annihilated in response, and most of the rest of the world would be ok with it
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u/Prometheus720 Nov 18 '22
They want a deterrent. They want a guarantee that the west will never be able to sweep them away.
Right now the only thing keeping them on the map is their threat to Seoul and their cover from China. If either of those stopped mattering the US alone could flatten them like a pancake.
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u/cannonman58102 Nov 18 '22 edited Nov 18 '22
They can't and don't produce enough missiles to really even threaten a single hit on the US. Missile interceptors for long range ballistic missiles are a crapshoot, but when the US can shoot 10 interceptors (recommended is I believe 4) at every missile the North could launch it becomes a near zero chance of a hit. I would be more worried about one of these "tests" fired over Japan being an actual attack and hitting them. After that surprise we could likely intercept anything fired at Japan. I don't believe we could stop a nuclear artillery shell from hitting Seoul, however.
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u/bomberdual Nov 18 '22
near
non-zeroFtfy. Near non-zero assumes a beginning at zero and moves outward (which if referring to accuracy measurements you want to go the other direction), rather than approaches it.
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u/cannonman58102 Nov 18 '22
Corrected. Thank you. Was distracted with work. :)
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u/IamKingBeagle Nov 18 '22
Come on. What's more important, work or giving the people of reddit accurate content to read while they poo.
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u/scraglor Nov 18 '22
Imagine japan being the first and second nation to cop nukes like 80 years apart. Much unluck
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u/ARC_32 Nov 18 '22
Lol, they don't have nuclear artillery. What they do have is the world's largest concentration of regular artillery, missiles and rockets all aimed at Seoul.
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u/cannonman58102 Nov 18 '22
We've developed and tested nuclear artillery more than 50 years ago. I don't believe it would be beyond their capabilities to produce a shell or two. In fact I would expect the production and development of their long range ICBM's would be more difficult.
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u/budshitman Nov 18 '22
Miniaturization is difficult (and, for the US, took a lot of time and titanium).
NK has a ton of pre-existing, fully dug-in, short-to-mid-range rocket artillery emplacements. All aimed south.
At this stage of their program, ballistic artillery shells would be a waste of resources.
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u/smolDreee Nov 18 '22
They want a guarantee that the west will never be able to sweep them away.
Unfortunately for North Korea, that will never happen.
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u/Kammander-Kim Nov 18 '22
USA is in a situation of “eh, they are annoying but we can’t justify the price of flattening of them right now”
Attack USA soil and the notion would turn to “hey war hawk generals and admirals! How soon could you flatten North Korea in the most overkill way possible? Wait, another idea, how about a competition? How about all you bransches try to do it and the first one to succeed wins a free milkshake? Yes coast guard, you can also join”
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u/GetoffmylawN7 Nov 18 '22
You’re scenario is fantastic. For whatever reason I imagined the 4 service leaders as old men with no teeth and the USCG leader as a little kid with a napkin tucked into the top of his shirt while he furiously scribbles away at his kid menu.
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u/UVLightOnTheInside Nov 18 '22
Korea is about 70 years behind in technology. All major powers are developing stealth hypersonic missiles and equivalent anti missiles. Its not korea we have to worry about.
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u/Kammander-Kim Nov 18 '22
No. But if we give the war hawks a single excuse they will use it.
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u/geekusprimus Nov 18 '22
Honestly, the US might not need to do much at all in this kind of a situation. North Korea exists because China wants a buffer state. If the buffer state starts threatening some of their best customers, though, it's no longer in China's best interest to let the buffer state do what it wants.
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u/futuregeneration Nov 18 '22
The US already flattened Korea once.
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u/anachronissmo Nov 18 '22
it is almost as if you were totally destroyed by an outside government you'd want to defend yourself from it from ever happening again
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u/CurlyBirch Nov 18 '22
Which is why we even have North Korea
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u/SilentSamurai Nov 18 '22
China is why we have North Korea.
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u/ElGosso Nov 18 '22
Actually, the US is why we have North Korea. The American lieutenant-governor refused to recognize the post-war government and declared it illegal in US-occupied territory. Without the actions of the US Army, it would all just be Korea, instead of North and South Korea.
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u/WikiSummarizerBot Nov 18 '22
The People's Republic of Korea (PRK) was a short-lived provisional government that was organized at the time of the surrender of the Empire of Japan at the end of World War II. It was proclaimed on 6 September 1945, as Korea was being divided into two occupation zones, with the Soviet Union occupying the north and the United States occupying the south. Based on a network of people's committees, it presented a program of radical social change. In the south, the US military government outlawed the PRK on 12 December 1945.
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u/gabu87 Nov 18 '22
Yeah, Korean War in a nutshell.
North Korea > South Korea
North Korea < US + Allies + remnants of South Korea
China + remnants of NK = US + Allies + remnants of South Korea
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u/QuantumWarrior Nov 18 '22
The biggest thing keeping North Korea on the map right now is that destroying them would result in a humanitarian crisis that nobody wants to deal with. South Korea would take more damage from their brainwashed starving population than from the 50-70 year old artillery pointed at Seoul, and if NK gave a good enough reason for invasion China wouldn't risk bringing NATO down on themselves.
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u/HouseOfSteak Nov 18 '22
pretty sure South Korea would take more damage from nukes hitting their cities tbh
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u/Scvboy1 Nov 18 '22
They wouldn’t unless we were already at war with them. This is just a show of force.
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u/jakoboi_ Nov 18 '22 edited Nov 18 '22
They wouldn't. People paint Kim as completely irrational but fail to consider the context. Obviously he is holding his country back, but look what happened in Ukraine. They gave up their ICBMs with a guarantee from the US and Russia of their borders being respected. Kim saw what happened in Poland, being on the border between two powers. Not just the US. Kim knows the history of the eastern bloc becoming the USSR's satellite states. With a neighboring China that far outclasses it, the greatest way of equalize is to develop nuclear weapons. The more powerful your weapons are, the more respected you are. Of course China "helps" North Korea because they don't want a US aligned state right next door. That's exactly how Imperial Japan took Manchuria during WW2. North Korea knows this and buys into it while maintaining nuclear capabilities. They know in an invasion from China they would be alone and would get obliterated, and again the greatest deterrent is more capable nuclear weapons. When you're a country that cannot maintain its own safety from its neighbors, you arm yourself to the teeth. Without the capability for home grown military complexes, the only way forward is nuclear.
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u/conman_127 Nov 18 '22
This comment was so rational and thought out it took me back to 2010 reddit for a bit
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u/YabbaDabbaFog Nov 18 '22
They wouldnt....unless we attack them.
This is a deterrent. If you come at us we can hurt you too. We just fear it because we understand their leadership to be crazy
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u/AttestedArk1202 Nov 18 '22
Yeah they’d be glassed within minutes if they tried anything
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u/ma33a Nov 18 '22
They aren't trying to do anything. What they are showing is that "yes you would win, but we would take as many of you with us as we can on the way out". No Western country can stomach the loss from a single nuke strike, so the threat is real in that regard.
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u/raspberry-cream-pi Nov 18 '22
Why does North Korea seem to care about the USA so much?
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u/jakl277 Nov 18 '22
Their national identity is based around the Korean war. America bombed a large portion of North Korea and so their focus is on America as the great enemy.
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u/Tektons Nov 18 '22
Not just a ‘large portion’ it was virtually every every single city. 85% of all buildings were destroyed. Bombs were not super accurate then so they just dropped a ton and then firebombed it all.
Even Winston Churchill was shocked at the level of destruction - that’s saying something.
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u/vangoghcuckurself Nov 18 '22
TheUSA did similar in Vietnam (80-90% of cities bombed I believe) but that relation seems different. Any one know how come?
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u/Tektons Nov 18 '22
The US dropped 2x more bombs on Indochina than all bombs dropped by the allied countries in WW2 combined. Over 6 million tons of bombs were dropped in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos.
Laos alone received 2.5 million tons of bombs, the equivalent of a planeload of bombs every eight minutes, for 24 hours a day, for nine years. There we're 580,000 bombing runs at a cost of $13.3 million a day in bombing.
Over 270 million cluster bombs were dropped on Laos with up to 80 million of them not exploding and laying as dormant mines with only 1% being destroyed in the past 50 years. 40% of the accidental detonation deaths are children. The US spent more in 10 days of bombing than it has contributed to help cleanup the bombs over the past 24 years.
The barbarian extent of the bombing campaigns in Asia during the anti-communist warmongering of that period is unknown to most in the US.
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u/EBDoo Nov 18 '22
This is actually wild. Any sources?
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u/Tektons Nov 18 '22 •
https://www.legaciesofwar.org/ is a good resource, they are a leading force in securing funding for cleanup and educating about the 'secret war' in Laos since it's widely unknown in the West.
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u/GreeneWithEnvy420 Nov 18 '22
Thank you for this information. I honestly feel really, really stupid. I thought the fighting the US did in Vietnam was just that, in Vietnam. My first job in high school was as a dishwasher and my counterpart was a Laotian man. Super nice and funny as fuck, now I just feel bad that I was just ignorant of what he may have gone through.
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u/Murderface_1988 Nov 18 '22
Kind of like 1984- if you are always "at war", it's easier to "protect" your people by controlling them
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u/Sadutote Nov 18 '22
Yup. IIRC, the American boogieman is still a staple in their propaganda and are going strong.
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u/Scary-Poptart Nov 18 '22
Russia's and China's as well. "America bad" is an extremely effective response to anything because Americans are willing to criticize themselves, and their enemies are willing to criticize them, so it becomes one-way traffic. It's the same for the West in general. Even if it's just whataboutism, which isn't a legitimate argument, it feels good to destroy someone's character and ignore their actual arguments.
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u/gogomorphintime Nov 18 '22
Shit, even Canada uses the US as a boogey man. I'd be willing to bet there isn't a country that doesn't resort to pulling out the U.S. card at least once every political cycle.
It's just too convenient for politicians. Hell, even American politicians do it.
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u/Yeahha Nov 18 '22
You haven't gotten a good response.
I believe this video does a good job explaining it
Basically when the Korean war started the north quickly too almost the entire peninsula. The US got involved and carpet bombed the whole place indiscriminately the north was able to get some area back but the conflict ended in an armistice. South Korea was propped up by the US afterwards for reasons. The North Koreans didn't have the same support. The North never recovered from the scar left by the US destroying it. The country has let the wound fester, they teach hatred and vilify the US. The propaganda helps the reigning leadership to maintain the hold on the population. The show of force against the US is showing their citizens that they are a world power and deserve respect on a global scale.
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u/DaechiDragon Nov 18 '22
Well yeah there were literally American soldiers on the ground fighting North Koreans and training /supporting South Koreans. The main catalyst for the war in the first place was over ideology and the Americans directly oppose North Korea’s. It was the US and Russia who drew the borders, not Koreans. Not to mention that after the war, the US played a big part in helping South Korea develop and has kept a huge military presence in South Korea and holds regular joint military drills with them.
North Korea doesn’t just randomly hate Americans for their blue jeans. I’m kind of surprised that more people don’t know all of this considering many Redditors may have grandparents who fought in the Korean war.
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u/auteurfantastique Nov 18 '22
I’m kind of surprised that more people don’t know all of this considering many Redditors may have grandparents who fought in the Korean war.
The Korean War is nicknamed "The Forgotten War" for a reason. It's overshadowed by WWII on one side and Vietnam on the other.
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u/gabu87 Nov 18 '22
over ideology
Americans have no problem supporting friendly dictatorship. It's more foreign policy in containing China's influence.
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u/raspberry-cream-pi Nov 18 '22
Thanks. Yes, I was rather ignorant about the Korean War and I hadn't fully appreciated the boon-to-authoritarian-control angle.
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u/terencebogards Nov 18 '22
theres a reason it's called America's "Forgotten War".
Blowback Season 3 (podcast) is focused solely on the war, the american involvement, and geopolitics of the time. havent listened to this season yet but the first two (Iraq and Cuba) were absolutely incredible.
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u/broskaphorous Nov 18 '22
Listen to blowback podcast S3 it goes into the Korean war and how much destruction it caused. Imagine if a leader of another country said "make no mistake we can bomb you off the face of the map" when 50 years ago they bombed you so much your people were forced to go underground. Now imagine the leader saying that was Obama about DPRK. It's really hard to talk about North Korea to Americans because if we bring up American actions that have led us to this brinkmanship we get called sympathizers for authoritarians.
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u/spaceaustralia Nov 18 '22
The North never recovered from the scar left by the US destroying it.
They're the most embargoed country on the planet. The mere fact that their capital hasn't been a parking lot since the 70s is a good recovery. It's also good to remember that, aside from the fact that their destroyers never left their borders, the US still regularly conducts exercises simulating a decapitation attack upon their state.
They have no reason to not view the US extremely disfavourably. Even before they had nukes, they had it much worse than even Cuba. After what happened to Libia, they have no reason to not pursue nuclear capabilities.
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u/NonGNonM Nov 18 '22
North Korea also legit believes they are the 'true' korea since they didn't receive US support and are the 'real will' of the korean people.
they bury the part where they were assisted by the soviets and the chinese.
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u/Thernadier Nov 18 '22
I’m sure it’s in no small part due to the fact that the us bombed essentially every grouping of buildings that could be considered as much as a village to ruble during the Korean War. Like I’m not the typical “lol US bad” guy, but the US leveled everything in North Korea during that war and I’m sure the grudge stands
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u/Suspicious_Bug6422 Nov 18 '22
The US and its allies damn near obliterated the entire country during the Korean War and would have intervened in regime change decades ago if they didn’t have nuclear weapons. Not defending the regime of course but they have plenty of reason to care.
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u/BornPotato5857 Nov 18 '22
It’s to assure mutual destruction and guarantee safety for their regime.
If we even lay a finger on them they will annihilate California is what they’re trying to say.
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u/Girafferage Nov 18 '22
Perfect use for the "why are you so obsessed with me" meme.
Also, amazing username.
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u/Floofyboy Nov 18 '22
Maybe, but that's exactly for this situation the US has anti missile defense. The US probably can't stop 200 ICBM fired by China or Russia, but they can stop a lone missile fired by NK. And they can also very quickly reply by burning NK to the ground. That's why Kim is very unlikely to ever do this.
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u/mhassig Nov 18 '22
Yeah between the aegis and patriot systems along with whatever wild stuff we’ve developed that’s classified I have absolutely zero concern that a single ICBM from NK could ever reach the mainland US.
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u/fourpuns Nov 18 '22
Eh. Patriot systems are unlikely to stop a nuke. ~80km range?
ICBMs you generally need to stop at launch or at altitude when it starts it’s return.
In testing the Us was like 60% success rate when they were prepared for a drill. Maybe it’s better but to assume they’d 100% stop an ICBM is pretty dangerous.
Still it makes little sense North Korea maybe kills a million people and ceases to exist?
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u/EastBoxerToo Nov 18 '22
What scares me about NK isn't that Kim launching a nuke at a population center for the lulz is farfetched, it's that we watch people do mass murder/suicide for silly reasons pretty much every week and eventually one of them has to run a country with nukes. They won't be governed by reason any moreso than anyone else who makes a plan to be horrible.
I'm a huge proponent of ever more advanced anti-missile systems on the simple premise that assholes will be assholes.
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u/riceandcashews Nov 18 '22
Laser defense and rail guns appears to the next step the DOD is looking into for middle defense next gen
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u/trebory6 Nov 18 '22
I agree, everyone acts as if world leaders are smart and logical and not just Elon Musks with nukes
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u/mhassig Nov 18 '22
You raise a good point about the patriot system vs ICBMs. That being said most of NKs nuke capable missiles are short ranged systems which patriot batteries are efficient at countering. Any nuke tipped short ranged missile NK would launch at SK we can counter.
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u/fourpuns Nov 18 '22 edited Nov 18 '22
I do agree that firing a short to mid range ballistic missile would likely be unsuccessful. That’s a relatively small border and highly monitored and those are typically the easiest thing to shoot down is my understanding. I don’t think they have hypersonic short range missiles.
But yea an ICBM coming down at Mach 5+ or whatever is another story.
It is worth noting it doesn’t take much time wise for a ballistic missile. You’re talking several minutes warning from launch to landing.
For an ICBM you’ve got say half an hour to hit the US. But that’s not a lot of time to determine the trajectory and get systems in place for when it exits mid phase and begins to descend. As far as I know in mid phase they’re too fast to do anything about. So then you get a 1-2 minute window to shoot it down as it descends on its target at ~3000km/h and remember with the size of larger modern nukes they may be detonated several kms in the air for maximum fallout.
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u/mhassig Nov 18 '22
Either way hopefully it never comes down to us needing to find out first hand. As much as they’d deserve it at that point wiping NK from the map would involve so much loss of life I can’t fathom it.
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u/fourpuns Nov 18 '22
NK is so weird. I watched one of those random cable TV documentaries about people crossing to SK to work and bringing money/food back.
They also talked about some whole families escaping but their knowledge and stuff is so out of whack with the real world that they end up returning to their awful seeming life in NK.
It’s amazing what life long brain washing and oppression does.
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u/Artisanal_Shitposter Nov 18 '22
That's a 60% intercept rate per shot. So if they shoot two interceptors then that knock down chance becomes much more likely. 3 shots increases the odds again.
It's a numbers game. If Russia or China fire a hundred missiles at the US they're bound to get some through. But if NK fires one or two, no chance they make it to their targets.
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u/Ballute Nov 18 '22 edited Nov 18 '22
Ten years ago it was laughable to suggest North Korea would ever have an ICBM and a program to produce them en masse. Twenty years ago it was laughable to suggest North Korea would ever have functional nuclear weapons and a program to produce them en masse. Right now it's laughable to suggest North Korea would ever successfully attack the US with nuclear weapons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
North Korea has a military nuclear weapons program and, as of early 2020, is estimated to have an arsenal of approximately 30 to 40 nuclear weapons and sufficient production of fissile material for six to seven nuclear weapons per year.
In fifteen years they'll have more nuclear weapons than India, Pakistan and Israel. At the same rate of seven per year, they'll have 210 nuclear weapons in thirty years. In sixty, they'll have more than China. But it won't be at the current rate, it'll be more, and eventually they'll have hydrogen bombs too. And I don't think anyone believes they are going to get less unhinged in the next 30 years.
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u/mhassig Nov 18 '22
I get what you’re saying but they simply don’t have the infrastructure to produce enough ICBMs to be a threat along with not having the space to position them. NK is a small nation compared to China and Russia. They simply can’t hide what they have from us and they never will be able to.
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u/littledrypotato Nov 18 '22
It was extremely predictable that they would continue to develope missile tech. I'm sure there were articles in 2010 predicting a 2025 development of long range missiles in NK. And what do you think NK was sanctioned for in the 2000s when the US pressured them to stop their 'peaceful nuclear power' program
The US military has had since perhaps 1994 (when NK left the NPT) to research countermeasures
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u/QueenOfThePatriarch Nov 18 '22
Your response is my favorite response. It felt like a corn field in Iowa might be a better location than my little West Coast home. (No offense to you all in Iowa.)
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u/not_prof_farnsworth Nov 18 '22
There are also two THAAD batteries that can make the shot, one in South Korea and one in Guam.
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u/dylanbt22 Nov 18 '22
We have GMD (Ground-Based Midcourse Defense) based in Alaska and California, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), ship based Ageis BMD, and Patriot’s all designed for ballistic missile defense, along with whatever secrets we have. A couple North Korean missiles would never make it through, my guess is we could handle a 50-100 missile launch with current known defenses.
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u/pup5581 Nov 18 '22 edited Nov 18 '22
There was either a YT video or documentary about the US running a drill against a missle fired from NK. It would take about 5 min to pinpoint the exact location that the missile has targeted and then the correct coordinates have to be plugged into the systems in the ship (this was the scenario...cruiser in the pacific was the first line of defense and if that doesn't take it out, there's another which was mainland US missiles.
The missles can also trick the radar into making it split off into 5 missiles all with all different tracks so it takes another 2-3 minutes to find the "real" one as there will be decoys in a single missile.
It was really fascinating and shows that if Russia ever decided to lauch 500 of these at us...some are going to get through and just how much goes into just tracking and taking one one of these. Far from straight forward to shoot one down
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u/frontbuttt Nov 18 '22
I have no doubt we would be at major risk if a world power decided (for god knows what reason) to launch a missile attack on the US, with hundreds of ICBMs headed our way… But, do you actually think the full defense capabilities of our military are on display within some YT video or documentary? Obviously not. That’s what they want everyone to know about. Plenty more up their sleeves they don’t want anyone to know about. That’s why we don’t have healthcare after all!
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u/dejatheprophet Nov 18 '22
Imagine if our nations defense was common knowledge via YouTube
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u/Snoo3014 Nov 18 '22
People joke about this but it is absolutely insane how much research has gone into military tech in the last 20 years. Like 3/4 of a trillion dollars a year. The level of sophistication in the last ten years must be insane.
Look at how much smartphones have advanced since 2012... Apple spends 8 billion a year on research. Imagine 10x that at least.
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u/broskaphorous Nov 18 '22
This kind of talk is insane. We have a standing army and weapons and we test them why can't other countries?
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u/9fingfing Nov 18 '22
We should just shoot one down by accident next time when there is a test.
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u/CulturalSink572 Nov 18 '22
Thats not how missle defense systems work. It will have to be close to the U.S mainland or Hawaii to be blocked by U.S missle defense systems. They have limited range.
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u/Dhayser Nov 18 '22
We have missile defense in South Korea and Guam as well
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Nov 18 '22
Sure. But they are nothing compared to those based in California and Alaska in terms of shooting down ICBMs
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u/NA_DeltaWarDog Nov 18 '22
Absolutely not. It's in the US best interest to keep everyone guessing (not just North Korea) about their capabilities until game day. Zero need for a global superpower to host a publicly observable practice match with the Hermit Kingdom.
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u/PandemicP3 Nov 18 '22
Looks like we need chief keef to talk to Kim again and save us
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u/Catch_Here__ Nov 18 '22
It’s all just a deterrent to keep Kim in power. He would never in a million years strike first.
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u/gamedori3 Nov 18 '22
He would never in a million years strike first.
You're right this year, and next year, but 15 years from now when Kim has developed dementia is not a million years.
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u/outrageouslyunfair Nov 18 '22
can we go one day without someone trying to start the third world war
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u/Jasonrj Nov 18 '22
Sorry the best we can do is 18 hours but we're going to have to feed you more crypto, Twitter, and economic collapse headlines during that time.
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u/SilentSamurai Nov 18 '22
North Korea isn't trying to start anything. They're just showing the world they now have a delivery system for their nukes so the door has closed on military intervention against them with no consequences.
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u/luckythirtythree Nov 18 '22 edited Nov 18 '22
Dumb question… but isn’t there quite enough room between us and Korea that we would know about a missle and intercept it?
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u/philip8421 Nov 18 '22
Counter intuitively its easier to hit a short to medium range missile. Icbms travel at such high speeds after their launch phase where intercepting them is like trying to hit a bullet with another bullet in space. Add to that the missiles counter defenses and the possibility of the warhead splitting into a dozen nukes and interception becomes extremely difficult. https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/physicists-argue-us-icbm-defenses-are-unreliable#:~:text=A%20new%20study%20sponsored%20by,within%20the%20next%2015%20years.
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u/ruuster13 Nov 18 '22
Then Space Force had better fucking be on it
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u/AnonymousPussyNommer Nov 18 '22
Does the space force actually do anything?
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u/modularpeak2552 Nov 18 '22
they control the GPS so they have a bigger impact on your day to day life than literally any other military branch.
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u/gabu87 Nov 18 '22
As much of a meme it was at creation, the space force had always existed to some extent just that it was previously part of the air force.
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u/Tothewallgone Nov 18 '22
That's cool - USA has about 200,000 missiles that can reach their mainland
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u/cinematotescrunch Nov 18 '22
Just one USA submarine hanging around in the sea of Japan could launch up to 20 missiles, each one containing 8 separate nukes (so 160 nukes), which would turn North Korea into a nuclear wasteland before their 1st missile were to even make it across the pacific.
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u/Tough-Ad6652 Nov 18 '22
Bring on the Alien 👽 invasion, the only way this planet might even start thinking about getting along! So sad!
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u/continuousQ Nov 18 '22
There will be people who join the side of the invading aliens, same as people joined on the side of the pandemic, the fascists and the billionaires.
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u/7evenCircles Nov 18 '22
The unfortunate thing for North Korea is that they don't have a triad and the country is fairly small and so several degrees of magnitude easier to observe. They do not draw the exchange, they just lose.
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u/walrus_with_GUN Nov 18 '22
Bro the whole world is already in a fucked up state can you just like sit there and not do anything stupid to trigger something worse ?
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u/bosnianpapi Nov 18 '22
North Korea really doesn't want the smoke. If they keep fuckin around, they'll find out why Americans don't have free Healthcare.
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u/16F33 Nov 18 '22
And the US has proven they can hit asteroids…this is an article used to strike fear.
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u/ghosttrainhobo Nov 18 '22
If the US ever decides to flex back at NK, they should just quietly fly a B-2 over Pyongyang and turn their transponder on just as they exit NK airspace.
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u/BaaaaL44 Nov 18 '22
"T-14 russian MBTs are impervious to damage by western anti-tank launchers"
This is the same thing, from NK
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u/IUseRedditToCreep Nov 18 '22
I’m curious if in my lifetime NK will ever make a fuck up big enough to delete it from the face of the earth
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u/Tribalbob Nov 18 '22
"They have a missile that can reach the US... except they don't anymore because they fired it and they can only afford to make one a year."
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u/ehpee Nov 18 '22
Yes. We know it has range. We also know Western air defense systems are more than capable of shooting down the missile over the ocean and are not concerned in the slightest about this.
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u/prodigy1367 Nov 18 '22
If it ever managed to get past our defense systems and actually hit US soil they would essentially be signing their own death warrant. North Korea would be No Korea real quick.
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u/CaptOblivious Nov 18 '22
Only once. Then the entire country becomes a sheet of glass. Oops.
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u/thesouthwillnotrise Nov 18 '22
this has been a headline since 2007. shit you not