As with all the discussions on national polls, it’s necessary to point out that national polls have no meaning. We don’t have national elections.
Blue states are gonna blue state and red states are gonna red state, so the President will be decided by a handfull of states that don’t reliably vote one way or another, and frankly, we just don’t have enough good data on a Harris nomination to say one way or another.
Looking at the notable states I’ve looked at before, this data is from before Biden dropped out.
Arizona - Trump +6 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +10 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico - No data for Harris.
Georgia - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Trump +4 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Trump +5 vs Harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Tied.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota - No data for Harris.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/Harris also puts Virginia in play now as well, in what was assumed to be a blue state, now Trump +4.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
So this is her starting point. She has 105 days to turn this around. The Democratic convention in August is key.
As of right now though? Here’s the map:
So ESPN favors trump is what you are saying. That site is owned by them. Always look at the bias.
Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if all or almost all major news outlets have some bias towards Trump from up top since they all are the basically the same people.
Entertainment news is pretty much all we have left. All of them are geared toward getting views and ratings. I have zero trust these days. I’m hardly ever surprised when some new corruption comes out and how quickly it disappears behind a cacophony of crap that doesn’t matter to me in the least. When people constantly stand on poll data that in my 53 years I’ve never been asked to participate in any poll. I’m pretty sure I am in no way unique so I figure polls are targeted for a result and I’m not a part of the process. I’m just supposed to be a consumer.
i’m going to need so much popcorn to watch GOP squirming and flailing desperate to find something to attack LOL
she’s too OLD!!!hunter’s laptop!!!buttery males!!!LOL
eat shit, republicans
What about white females?
Biden’s our best bet, they said.
Everyone else polls worse, they said.
They were and remain full of shit.
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Most of us have told you tons of fucking times that we didn’t care who they ran, we were voting AGAINST Trump, not FOR Biden.
And now that you have the opportunity to vote for someone who can actually beat Trump, you’re angry.
Why do always make shit up?
If you haven’t noticed people on lemmy who were insisting that it had to be Biden because no one else could exceed his polling, you haven’t been on lemmy for a while.
Only, we’re not not voting. So…. I guess you don’t really get your way. Do you?
Check my comment history. I’m overjoyed that we have a better candidate now. Seems like the party is with me.
Of course, you’re not. Try to avoid the urge to write in Bidenyahu.
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The party listened to people like me who wanted Biden to step down. They ignored the calls to maintain an untenable status quo from people who swore there would be chaos immediately upon Biden quitting the race.
The results speak for themselves. There’s genuine excitement behind Harris that wasn’t there for Biden. There’s hope again.
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I said people like me. In case you missed it, people who wanted Biden to step down were abundant.
We were also right, as events have indicated.
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Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
National polls go beyond meaninglessness and into actual harm. The national popular vote does not elect the president, as we all should know too well. My vote in Illinois is worth far less than someone’s vote in Wyoming. Your vote in California is worth far less than someone’s vote in Alaska.
Unless a national poll weights responses based on state, and based on the electoral college results from states, it is completely misleading.
And my vote in Oklahoma…oh fuck it who are we kidding lol. Meaningless. I still do it though.
Lots of downticket races can be swung by a popular presidential nominee.
That said, Oklahoma’s awash in O&G money and its state bureaucrats are notoriously corrupt. At some point, the sheer volume of gerrymandering, vote caging, and criminal disenfranchisement needs to be addressed. Simply shouting at people to “GO VOTE!” when they’re getting handed broken machines and defective butterfly ballots and threatening robocalls isn’t helping anyone, least of all the candidates they’re hoping will win.
That is an uncomfortably close margin but it’s good to see she’s leading now at least.
It’s only been like one day.
it’s honestly blowing my mind.
Better 2-pts up with Harris than 3-pts down with Biden. I like the direction those polls are swinging, even if I wouldn’t put money on an outcome.
Popularity or percentage of electoral college votes?
Only one of the two matter.
Yeah this is always the thing people forget… we have this antiquated electoral college thing.
