I don’t think so. Ukraine has been gearing up its domestic arms industry all war long. They may suffer a big setback if the US withdraws all support but I think Europe has shown a lot of indications that they will step up. Ukraine is digging in for the long war.

I also think it’s possible that Trump may get impatient with Putin if he’s unwilling to compromise (and all indications are that he will). Furthermore, the domestic problems that drove Putin to invade in the first place have not gone away. If anything, they’re worse than ever. If Russia finds itself without a war then domestic disputes between different factions will begin to heat up again.