| Party | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 189 | +29 | 43.1% | +10.5% | 74.7% | 18.4% |
| Conservative | 127 | +8 | 40.4% | +6.7% | 1.9% | 5% |
| Bloc | 20 | -12 | 4.6% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 5 | -20 | 6.1% | -11.7% | N/A | N/A |
The last datapoint is interesting. All four of the top parties lost a little ground? Where did it go? Surely not all to the PPC, and the Greens don’t look like they gained that much.
The rise of independents looks significant too. Maybe it’s down to some riding with CPC candidates getting snubbed and then pulling the local support they had.