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The Liberals should get out of the way there. All I see is a badly split vote.
But they’re too arrogant to do that unfortunately. They demand the NDP and Greens do it in their close races but refuse to do the same when the shoe is on the other foot while also opposing proportional representation at the same time.
It’s weird to see the change in projections in the last month for this riding.
https://338canada.com/59029e.htm
Scroll down to the chart over time and the Liberals were way in the lead at one point in the last month, and then the cons darted up.
Seems like this projection is tenuous at best. The algorithm is probably struggling with the Green party since it is an outlier.
Wow! That seems all sciencey and stuff.
Keep in mind, riding level polling doesn’t actually exist (in any meaningful way) in Canada. What these models do is take the historical vote distribution for that riding and adjust it based on national level polling trends. Don’t treat this kind of projection as remotely reliable at the riding level, it doesn’t actually tell you anything about what’s happening in your locality.
As always, the election is the only truly accurate poll. So get out and vote.
Don’t treat this kind of projection as remotely reliable at the riding level, it doesn’t actually tell you anything about what’s happening in your locality.
338Canada’s record has been pretty darn good. Saying, “it doesn’t tell you anything” is downplaying not only their historical accuracy, but also the effort they put into their methodology.
They aren’t perfect. For example, I lived in Kitchener Centre where the Greens were out of 338Canada’s MOE 2 elections in a row, but on the whole, they’ve been pretty accurate.
- Cool your jets. I’m not deriding 338 or the usefulness of polling in general. Modelling is a very difficult science and 338 are very, very good at it.
- By their own numbers their likelihood of correctly projecting a seat goes down dramatically when one parties odds of a win aren’t higher than 70%. Translated backwards that means that the projected riding level poll numbers you see become significantly less meaningful.
What this means is that while models like 338 are very good at predicting the overall trend of the election, in close or complicated races like the one being discussed they are not as indicative as people would like to think when it comes to, say, making tactical voting decisions. They are, ultimately, just making somewhat informed guesses about what these numbers are. In the aggregate those guesses tend to be right, but that doesn’t mean you’re getting accurate and direct data about how your particular riding is leaning, and people need to understand that.
The liberals need to put their country first by strategically voting for Elizabeth May.
So many anti-Conservative voters have the misconception that strategic voting means always supporting the Liberal candidate. In some ridings, it’s the NDP or Green candidate who has the best shot.
It could be that some people simply misunderstand how the election works. They think they’re voting for the PM not just a local representative in Parliament.
This. Even if people have a basic understanding of how elections work in principle, in practice they vote for who they want to (or who they think will – people love backing a winner) be PM.
@Sunshine The joys of not-proportional representation.
It’s nice to see anti-pr liberals get a taste of their own medicine in this instance.
