Kind of obvious that this was always The Plan. And they will probably go much further than logic/reality justifies, because there is no going back. This is an all or nothing gamble by the black hearted, petromafia gangster ghouls in charge of Russia. They will never again have the remotest element of surprise that they would actually do this type of naked imperial land grab against sovreign European states.
But - the landscape now is way beyond the likely most pessimistic estimates they had in their 2022 war plans. Primary o&g export markets destroyed. The majority of their soviet military stockpile inheritance destroyed. 1 million+ war casualities that will be a burden on the state going forward in terms of pension, disability, and military usefulness. A stable of third-rate allies of limited diplomatic use who only run on bribes. The implosion of their most pugnacious allies (Wagner, Syria, Iran and it’s proxies Hamas and Hezbollah) who had been most useful in creating mischief among Russia’s western enemies. Terminal demographic decline pushed into hyperdrive by this maniacally stalemated war. The critical loss of power projection into the Baltic, Black Sea and Mediterranean. The depletion of missile stocks. The implosion of their arms export industry due to the crap perforamnce of their second rate ‘good enough’ weapons systems compared to commercially available drone technologies. The demonstrated impotence of their air defense. Their new vassal status as the junior partner to China, to whom they can refuse no requests for resources on favorable terms going forward. The declining strategic importance & increasingly large extraction costs of their only real exports, oil & gas + minerals, made worse by their willful destruction of their own labour force.
Hell - the very abrupt obsolescene of their entire way of Horde War. Their philosophy since the 1950’s was that it didn’t matter that NATO had better gear - their medium tier tanks and artillery was good enough as long as you had enough of it, and that they could push from Poland to Portugal before NATO even started to think about being able to respond, because the Euros are a bunch of feckless pussies who won’t fight anyways…right? Tanks, artillery and crude, inhuman mass have proven to be NOWHERE near as overwhelming as they assumed, even in a flat, relatively poorly equipped country right next door.
It’s maddening that Russia continues to insist it’s winning but - in the big picture…they’re getting absolutely obliterated, at the micro and macro level. It’s not necessary for them to admit it for it to be objectively true. The war ends when Putin dies, full stop. How that happens is the only thing left to ponder.
Cool. I appreciate that you can back up your claims, but I don’t need to see evidence to believe that Russia is doing this shit
Hell, aliens could invade right now, and I’d believe it was the Russians.
The only chance for world peace is for aliens to invade. Then, the whole world would unite. With aliens against the Russians.
Little green men indeed
Its funny isnt it? The “it was the russians” began to become an ironic joke and a cliche but its been revived and reality again
I would expect that the military & intelligence services engage in due diligence and risk analysis, though.
What the public gets is signalling at best, to set expectations without causing panic. I’d take it seriously when it’s coming from a trusted government.
Russia’s army got rekt and his soldiers are literally starving. I don’t doubt that Putin wants to try something but I just don’t see it happening.
But are still in Ukraine, so lets not be so dismissive just yet because if they were rekt, they wouldnt be in ukraine
That’s fair. I guess a more accurate statement would be that Russia’s army is significantly more rekt than people generally expected them to be after going to war with Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini.
Ukraine is just that fucking cracked. I feel like that’s the takeaway we should have. They’ve been buying us time for a really long time. It could’ve been a successful blitzkrieg by all rights. We need these strong people for the future of international security and allowing them to fall would be a major blow to the future of world peace.
Ukraine. On something fucking else.
The Russian economy is just now fully mobilized on a war footing. Stopping the war would send them into an economic depression.
Victory for Russia in Europe isn’t necessarily rolling through Eastern Europe and Germany at the head of huge tank formations.
But taking the Baltic States and parts of Europe and sitting on them. Would Western Europe and the US come to the aid of those smaller NATO allies and engage in a potentially grinding war to throw Russian back?
Grabbing a few key areas while splitting NATO permanently… That it could do.
Would Western Europe and the US come to the aid of those smaller NATO allies and engage in a potentially grinding war to throw Russian back?
I believe deeply that Europe would. The strategic consequences of not doing so are too clear. Plus, we all really like the Baltics.
You may mark this for future wine or milk.
This is for one, something that at least I have realized to be the end result of this conflict from the beginning.
Based off the response the past 3 and almost 1/2 years I have completely zero faith that NATO would come to the aid of the Baltic states. And they understand that. That’s why they’ve been pulling out of accords in order to prepare defenses. They know better than almost anyone the threat Russia poses.
This has always been Putin’s plan. And now that they’re in full swing on the war economy, pulling away now would be a complete economic collapse. Anyone that doesn’t treat these fascists as such are either living in their own bubble or grossly misinformed.
They absolutely intend to take the Baltic states.
Poland will be next in line. It is just a question of time.
Poland is literally chomping at the bit to get causus belli for some Russian ass.
Finland and Estonia aren’t far behind.
After that we’ll be testing Article 5. Hard.
Making fun of your enemy is the fastest way to lose.
