Rating agency Moody’s says Kenya will need $3 billion in annual external financing to meet its external debt service needs after 2024. These needs include nearly $2 billion per year owed to private creditors and Chinese bilateral creditors, two groups for which refinancing can come at a higher cost of borrowing and lack predictability.

Apart from a new eurobond issuance, Kenya has had substantial foreign currency inflows in recent months from multilateral creditors, and also from bilateral and commercial creditors.

IMF approved sixth review of Kenya’s Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility disbursing $624.5 million in January, and the World Bank is expected to provide Kenya between $1 billion and 1.5 billion under its Development Policy Operation before 2024 eurobond maturity.

Other external financing sources are less certain, but the government has raised funding from the syndicated loan market and could receive additional loans from bilateral creditors, which would boost Kenya’s international reserve position from around $7 billion currently, or about four months of import coverage.