The headline is misleading.
Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won in 50.015 percent of cases, while Trump won in 49.65 percent of cases, per Silver’s model. Some 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 Electoral College tie.
So a better headline would be “Simulations show Harris and Trump are equally likely to win the election.” The difference between them is insignificant.
And when you factor in all the underhand cheating tactics the Republicans have up their sleeve, the Democrats’ tendency to cave, and the Supreme Court’s bias, Trump looks a lot more likely to win than Harris.
Trump would be a disaster, but these last-minute hopeful headlines just smack of desperation. I just saw another one saying Harris had “suddenly jumped into the lead” because one model put here at 50.015% of the vote. It’s nothing to be thrilled about, especially with the Republicans set to employ every underhanded tactic they can to steal the victory. In any normal country there would be no competition between these two, but this is the USA.