To summarize recent events:
- It is likely going to be a governor, meaning PA’s Shapiro, Minnesota’s Walz, or KY’s Beshear.
- Next Tuesday, Kamala Harris will campaign in Philadelphia with her VP selection, probably less than 10 miles from Shapiro’s home in the suburbs. She will also head to Arizona, suggesting either Shapiro or Kelly could be frontrunners
- Kelly plans on being in Arizona next week anyway, although I haven’t heard an outright denial about him traveling to PA
- Whitmer came to suburban Philly on Monday to campaign with Shapiro.
I would be shocked if she isn’t picking Shapiro
I think Shapiro is the most obvious pick, but also not the most strategic. His position on Gaza and Israel don’t help her where she needs it the most. She is going to have to wrangle NC and GA on her own. Her VP and surrogates are going to need to get upper midwest (game is over without those) and PA. Mark Kelley ain’t delivering AZ, and Beshear aint delivering Kentucky, so they’re out
That leaves it between Walz and Shapiro. I think objectively Walz is better for her across the board. He’s a stronger progressive and he puts WI, MI, and MN completely out of the running for Republicans to get, but he needs to be able to be “on the right side” of Israel/ Palestine to do so and it says: Undecided, we heard you. Shapiro has been on the wrong side the whole time; it would be a harder pivot and he has to come out full throated to take MN and WI off the table and make MI competitive again. Its not clear to me Shapiro does that.
Lets assume its a trade off. If you go Shapiro you lock up PA, if you go Walz you lock up MN, MI, and WI. If you go Shapiro and don’t step left on Israel Gaza, you don’t get the upper midwest and it doesn’t matter if you don’t pickup PA. Thats two additional if’s on the board for Shapiro. Walz is already on the winning side of Israel Gaza, so that makes the job of getting those states much easier. Basically, you’ can’t suffer any defections under a Shapiro scenario. I think Walz is the more strategic, smarter bet, but I also think its the one they won’t make.
I think Shapiro is the most obvious pick
You got that right then went off track. Josh Shapiro would be a huge and strategic asset to the ticket.
No you are wildly wrong.
I would be just as excited about Harris/Shapiro as I was about Biden/Harris. I think it is suicidal to pick him, but I think all indications make that likely. Just about anyone else is a better pick. He is just so far into advocating for this genocide, it is like getting Biden back on the ticket.
If you don’t mind, since it seems like you have a grasp of the material, can you outline the bigger issues with Shapiro for those in the audience or not paying attention? I know he was basically against the student protests, and the whole “scandalous” conduct thing, but honestly not in great detail. Its good to have specifics.
But if its how you say it is, it seems like there is almost no way you retain the upper-midwest with Shapiro on the ticket, unless its a complete reversal for him. You just won’t get the Muslim with an islamaphobe on the ticket. And i think if you are currently siding with Israel on this issue right now, thats the right word. Muslims face the reality that, apparently, a majority US politicians see their lives as less valuable than even farm animals. Its also clear that Israel has never been acting in good faith regarding negotiations, even the bastardization of whatever a ceasefire is the US tried to roll out. Its also clear that they never cared about getting the tourists back; their lives were always part of the cost of doing the business of the Zionist colonial project.
Dem’s can’t suffer any defections among MI, WI, and MN. If they lose any one of those states, this election is done, because it also means they’ve almost definitely lost PA and either GA or NC or both.
As an anyone but Trump independent conservative in one of the states you stated, who is Walz and why would it make people in my state vote for Harris more than Harris already does? I didn’t like Biden and I don’t like Harris, but Harris is doing better than I ever thought possible. I really don’t see what a VP could do for her as far as my state goes. I think Harris is the selling point herself
As an anyone but Trump independent conservative in one of the states you stated
Did you vote Undecided or uncommitted? Do you have friends or family in the ME? Are you a young person whose rights are being stripped away on college campuses, something that a candidate like Shapiro supports? Do you see US foreign policy as fundamentally racist and in support of a genocide? If you didn’t answer yes to those issues, or If you don’t support the Palestinian peoples cause, the VP pick might not be a deciding factor for you.
The fact is 13% of voters in MI voted undecided, largely for the reasons I mentioned above, about 100,000 voters. MI only went Biden by 150k votes in the general. Wisconsin, 8.3%, Minnesota, 19%, unaffiliated or undecided or uninstructed. That’s a more than consequential number of voters who need to be brought back in for Harris to claim that state.
If Harris is good enough for you, then she should be good enough for you regardless of her VP pick and you can just go back to not knowing who your neighboring states Governors are. But there are plenty who see her foreign policy as a direct extension of the Biden WH, and a guy like Shapiro is going to look like more of the same. This is how politics works. You have to make appeals to specific demographics and blocks of voters.
The idea that winning elections has ever been about appeals to the center has always been incorrect. Winning elections is about appealing to and driving out specific demographics of voters.
As a “Never Trump” conservative, you should consider yourself fortunate enough to at least have access to a party that has kept its sanity through the decades of mess that Republicans built up for us, starting with Reagan. Its a big tent party, and making demographic appeals based on policy are part of the process.
Just because something isn’t a priority for you doesn’t mean it isn’t a priority for someone else.
I’m still holding out hope for Buttigieg, no matter how small the chances are.
You should read up on McKinsey, the company that employed him as a consultant. They make Monsanto look like the Peace Corps.
