Influenza is still the biggest threat to global health as WHO raises fears about the spread of avian strain
Influenza is the pathogen most likely to trigger a new pandemic in the near future, according to leading scientists.
An international survey, to be published next weekend, will reveal that 57% of senior disease experts now think that a strain of flu virus will be the cause of the next global outbreak of deadly infectious illness.
The belief that influenza is the world’s greatest pandemic threat is based on long-term research showing it is constantly evolving and mutating, said Cologne University’s Jon Salmanton-García, who carried out the study.
“Each winter influenza appears,” he said. “You could describe these outbreaks as little pandemics. They are more or less controlled because the different strains that cause them are not virulent enough – but that will not necessarily be the case for ever.”
Wasn’t it that COVID came as a surprise for most scientists cause they bet on avian flu viruses? So it isn’t any new info and a fear they’ve had for quite some time now.
I heard from a guy from the German COVID watch (RKI), that the probability for a new epidemic is around 2.x% each year and around 1.x% for a pandemic. That’s why there is a big epidemic around every 30-50 years and a pandemic every 80-100 years. What type of virus will be the next big thing is nothing but a guess and often wrong (like COVID out of nowhere), cause it’s difficult to predict the next mutation of a virus. That’s also why a lot of flu vaccines in the past didn’t have the effect they hoped for (mostly it’s still a very good vaccine!).
I would think after SARS and MERS that many scientists thought that a coronavirus would be a good candidate for the next pandemic.